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Thursday, November 28, 2013

Buffalo Bills - Playoffs? PLAYOFFS!?

The Buffalo Bills are currently 14th in the AFC. They need to finish in the top 6 in the AFC to secure a playoff spot. The top 5 spots seem out of reach for the Buffalo Bills as their division looks destined to go to the Patriots and the 7-4 Bengals occupy the first Wild Card spot which is the 5th playoff spot. Cincinnati is 7-4 while the Buffalo Bills are 4-7 and the Bengals own the head to head tie-breaker.

There are 8 teams ahead of the Buffalo Bills, standing in their way of the playoffs. Is it likely they make the playoffs? No, it's not likely. The odds are stacked against the Bills. Is it possible? Damn right it's possible! The Bills have something working in their favor that no other team in the NFL has the luxury of and that is the easiest remaining schedule. Let's do a breakdown/scenario of all the Wild Card hopeful AFC teams and what needs to happen for the Bills to get a first round matchup against the #3 seed in the AFC (which is currently occupied by a very cold, beatable Indianapolis Colts team).

The final playoff spot is possessed by the 5-6 Tennessee Titans. They are being led by former Buffalo Bills castoff Ryan Fitzpatrick ever since starter Jake Locker went down with a season ending injury. They are far from a threat and I would personally be shocked if they hold on to this spot when the regular season ends. Let's take a look at their schedule and what we want to happen going forward.

Best Case Scenario is what, as Bills fans, we want to happen. Realistic scenario is whether it could happen. For example: it's best case scenario that the Jaguars beat the Titans but it's more realistic that the Titans will beat the Jaguars. Best case scenario is that the Giants beat the Chargers and while it's realistic that the Chargers could beat the Giants, it's also equally realistic that the Giants could beat the Chargers

The realistic predictions aren't so much my predictions as they are slightly more realistic than the best case scenario. These are situations that could very well happen. You can justify either team winning in a lot of these matchups but this article will side with the scenarios that will help the Bills while keeping it realistic, which is pretty much me avoiding any prediction that involves the terrible Jaguars or Texans getting a realistic win vs. any potential AFC team.

6. Tennessee Titans 5-6 / Best Case Scenario: 5-11 / Realistic Scenario: 7-9

at Indianapolis - Best Case: L / Realistic: L
at Denver - Best Case: L / Realistic: L
vs. Arizona - Best Case: L / Realistic: L
at Jacksonville - Best Case: L / Realistic: W
at Houston - Best Case: L / Realistic: W

7. Pittsburgh Steelers 5-6 / Best Case Scenario: 5-11 / Realistic Scenario: 7-9

at Baltimore - Best Case: L / Realistic: L
vs. Miami - Best Case: L / Realistic: W
vs. Cincinnati - Best Case: L / Realistic: L
at Green Bay - Best Case: L / Realistic: L
vs. Cleveland - Best Case: L / Realistic: W

8. Baltimore Ravens 5-6 / Best Case Scenario: 6-10 / Realistic Scenario: 7-9

vs. Pittsburgh - Best Case: W / Realistic: W
vs. Minnesota - Best Case: L / Realistic: W
at Detroit - Best Case: L / Realistic: L
vs. New England - Best Case: L / Realistic: L
at Cincinnati - Best Case: L / Realistic: L

9. San Diego Chargers 5-6 / Best Case Scenaro: 5-11 / Realistic Scenario: 7-9

at Cincinnati - Best Case: L / Realistic: L
vs. New York Giants - Best Case: L / Realistic: L
at Denver - Best Case: L / Realistic: L
vs. Oakland - Best Case: L / Realistic: W
vs. Kansas City - Best Case: L / Realistic: W

10. New York Jets 5-6 / Best Case Scenario: 7-9 / Realistic Scenario: 6-10

vs. Miami - Best Case: W / Realistic: L
vs. Oakland - Best Case: L / Realistic: L
at Carolina - Best Case: L / Realistic: L
vs. Cleveland - Best Case: L / Realistic: W
at Miami - Best Case: W / Realistic: L

11. Miami Dolphins 5-6 / Best Case Scenario: 6-10 / Realistic Scenario: 7-9

at New York Jets - Best Case: L / Realistic: W
at Pittsburgh - Best Case: W / Realistic: L
vs. New England - Best Case: L / Realistic: L
at Buffalo - Best Case: L / Realistic: L
at New York Jets: Best Case: L / Realistic: W

12. Oakland Raiders 4-7 / Best Case Scenario: 6-10 / Realistic 6/10

at Dallas - Best Case: L / Realistic: L
at New York Jets - Best Case: W / Realistic: W
vs. Kansas City - Best Case: L / Realistic: L
at San Diego - Best Case: W / Realistic: W
vs. Denver - Best Case: L / Realistic: L

13. Cleveland Browns 4-7 / Best Case Scenario: 6-10 / Realistic: 6-10

vs. Jacksonville - Best Case: L / Realistic: W
at New England - Best Case: L / Realistic: L
vs. Chicago - Best Case: L / Realistic: L
at New York Jets - Best Case: W / Realistic: W
at Pittsburgh - Best Case: W / Realistic: L

14. Buffalo Bills 4-7 / Best Case Scenario: 9-7  Realistic 8-8

vs. Atlanta - Best Case: W / Realistic: W
at Tampa Bay - Best Case: W / Realistic: W
at Jacksonville - Best Case: W / Realistic: W
vs. Miami - Best Case: W / Realistic: W
at New England - Best Case: W / Realistic: L

UPDATED BEST CASE SCENARIO STANDINGS:

6. Buffalo Bills 9-7
7. New York Jets 7-9
8. Baltimore Ravens 6-10
9. Miami Dolphins 6-10
10. Oakland Raiders 6-10
11. Cleveland Browns 6-10
12. Tennessee Titans 5-11
13. Pittsburgh Steelers 5-11
14. San Diego Chargers 5-11

This gives the Bills the 6th spot by two games in case they slip up or one of the teams below them steals a game that doesn't go the Bills way. Is this realistic? Good gracious no. This is so far fetched but if karma is real and the football Gods feel that the Bills have been through enough over the years and want to make up for the last decade of misery, it could technically happen.

UPDATED REALISTIC SCENARIO STANDINGS:

6. Buffalo Bills 8-8
7. Tennessee Titans 7-9
8. Baltimore Ravens 7-9
9. Pittsburgh Steelers 7-9
10. San Diego Chargers 7-9
11. Miami Dolphins 7-9
12. New York Jets 6-10
13. Oakland Raiders 6-10
14. Cleveland Browns 6-10

This gives the Bills the 6th spot without having to go into tiebreakers. Is this realistic? I mean why, it's titled the "realistic scenario standings" for a reason. But seriously, it's not realistic, but it is more realistic than the best case scenario standings and while I do think the Bills can go 8-8 and maybe even 9-7, I think one of the teams currently ahead of the Bills, like the Steelers, Ravens or Chargers will win a few games and stay ahead of the Bills for that final playoff spot when all is said and done. The Bills are still mathematically alive so don't give up on this team yet.

"So you're saying there's a chance?" Damn right I am. I will attach the NFL Tie-breaking Procedures directly from NFL.com below so you can familiarize yourself with what would happen if the Bills are tied with this team or that team. As the season winds down and the Bills stay in the race, I will update with more in-depth tie-breaking procedures. Fortunately in the above scenarios, the Bills aren't tied with anyone so there's no need to delve into this topic at this point in time.

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures