There are 30 teams in the NHL and with 16 teams extending their season in hopes of raising Lord Stanley, it leaves 14 teams vying for their their own Stanley Cup of sorts in the form of the #1 overall pick in the upcoming 2014 NHL Draft. The 14 teams who did not qualify for the playoffs may not be in the running for the best trophy in sports this year, but they are hoping to draft the next star who will help them raise it sometime in the future.
The NHL has a lottery to decide the order in the upcoming draft so the order isn't set in stone when the season ends like most other professional sports. Having the worst record definitely increases your odds of landing the 1st overall pick but it doesn't guarantee it. The team with the best odds at wining the lottery is the Buffalo Sabres. The Buffalo Sabres have a 25% chance at winning the lottery since they had the worst overall record, followed by the Florida Panthers who had the second worst record, the Edmonton Oilers who had the third worst record and so on and so forth. The team with the lowest percentage at winning the lottery is the Washington Capitals who had the most points out of the non-playoff teams, being the closest team to making the playoffs but coming up short of qualifying.
While the Capitals have a 0.5% at winning the lottery, there's a team who finished with fewer points that has an even lesser chance at winning the lottery and that is the New Jersey Devils. The New Jersey Devils have a 1.1% chance at having their ping pong ball chosen but a 0% chance at actually landing the #1 pick. Let me explain. If the Devils ping pong ball is chosen, it is put back in and the process continues until anyone but the Devils win the lottery. The New Jersey Devils are facing a league violation from the Ilya Kovalchuk contract fiasco and are set to pick 30th overall in the 2014 1st round no matter the outcome of the lottery or the NHL playoffs, that we know.The Stanley Cup champion will be picking 29th, up one spot from the traditional 30th overall slot that the best team is awarded.
The lottery is simply one ball being chosen to decide the 1st overall pick so the furthest a team can move down is one spot. Every team in the lottery has a chance at landing the #1 overall pick, some teams with higher odds than others so the Washington Capitals, with the worst odds at 0.5%, can land the top pick so the highest a team can move up is technically 13 spots. The lowest the Buffalo Sabres will be picking is 2nd overall if another team wins the lottery and jumps them. The teams in the lottery and their chances at winning are as followed:
1. Buffalo Sabres - 25%
2. Florida Panthers - 18.8%
3. Edmonton Oilers - 14.2%
4. Calgary Flames - 10.7%
5. New York Islanders - 8.1% (A pick the Sabres could end up with)
6. Vancouver Canucks - 6.2%
7. Carolina Hurricanes - 4.7%
8. Toronto Maple Leafs - 3.6%
9. Winnipeg Jets - 2.7%
10. Phoenix Coyotes - 2.1%
11. Ottawa Senators - 1.5%
12. New Jersey Devils - 1.1% (Will draft 30th overall)
13. Nashville Predators - 0.8%
14. Washington Capitals - 0.5%
Looking at this list, there are two additional teams that are guaranteed to move up from their current spots even if they don't win the lottery and that's both the Predators & Capitals when the Devils drop down to 30th.
There are a few scenarios to watch heading into tomorrow's Lottery Selection Show (Tuesday, 8:00p ET) if you are a Sabres fan.
The first scenario is whether the Buffalo Sabres will win the lottery and be awarded the #1 overall pick. If this happens, the Sabres will be choosing between the big 3, two forwards in Sam Reinhart (C) and Sam Bennett (LW) and one stud defensemen in Aaron Ekblad (D). The two prospects rounding out the top 5 are projected to be forwards Michael Dal Colle (LW) and Leon Draisaitl (LW).
Another scenario to keep an eye on is what the New York Islanders do with their 1st round pick. They can protect it, giving the Sabres their 1st round pick next year and a great opportunity at landing the services of stud forward Connor McDavid or they can give the Sabres their 1st round pick this year and keep their organization in the running for McDavid's services next year. The Islanders could very well win the lottery, give their pick to the Sabres and Buffalo would control the top 2 picks where they would most likely draft Ekblad and either Reinhart or Bennett. Most people think that if the Islanders win the lottery, they'll keep the 1st overall pick but if you ask any Sabres fan, having two shots at McDavid next year would not be a bad 'consolation' if the Islanders decide to keep this years pick.
If the Islanders don't win the lottery, there's a good chance they give the Sabres their 1st round pick. If they do this and the Sabres win the lottery, the Sabres will be picking 1st and 5th overall. If the Panthers, Oilers or Flames win the lottery, the Sabres will be picking 2nd and 5th. If any of the teams 6-14 win the lottery, the Sabres will be picking 2nd and 6th which is the worst combination of picks the Sabres will have if they get the Islanders 1st round pick and fail to win the lottery themselves.
Aaron Ekblad is the best defensive prospect in this years draft and some argue, the best overall prospect. Naturally, the team picking 1st overall should take the best prospect, which in this case would be the Sabres according to their odds. As a fan of the Sabres, I rather take whichever forward they like better out of Reinhart or Bennett.
The best case in my eyes would be for the Sabres to NOT win the lottery. Instead, I rather a team needing a defenseman, preferably a team from the West, to win the lottery. With that being said, I hope that team is the Edmonton Oilers. This will move the Sabres to 2nd and keep the Islanders in the 5th spot.
While you want your team to draft the best player possible, I think the Sabres have a greater need at Forward than they do at Defenseman. The Sabres were bad in all facets of the game this season. They went through a slew of goaltenders, were constantly out-shot and had a below average amount of scoring depth up front. I truly feel that the future is bright at the back-end thanks to players like Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Zadorov, Tyler Myers, Jake McCabe and Mark Pysyk. Adding a 6th defenseman in Ekblad would be great in theory but not in practicality. It would be a great top 6 but that top 6 is far too young especially since they are all within a very close age proximity.
Good teams have a combination of youth and veteran leadership. This top 6 leaves no room for any veteran defensemen. If you were to sign veteran defensemen, it would block your prospects and could inhibit their development as they would be stuck in the minors. I understand there are injuries and you can trade a defensive prospect or two for forward depth or you can have a slew of them in case some of them don't develop however the Sabres have a greater need at forward where you need 12 guys than they do at defensemen where you only need 6. The Sabres are much closer to solidifying their ideal 6 defensemen than they are finding 12 forwards who can score consistently and play two-way hockey, two things that both Reinhart and Bennett do very well.
I will reiterate, Aaron Ekblad will be a stud, but so will Sam Reinhart and Sam Bennett. I don't want to be in a position where the Sabres pass on Ekblad and constantly have to track his progress vs. the player they decide to choose and debate on a yearly basis whether or not it was the right choice. The best thing for the Sabres would be for the Edmonton Oilers, a defensive needy team from the West picking between 2 and 4, to win the lottery, draft Ekblad and the Sabres draft who they like better out of Reinhart and Bennett and are never put in the position of passing on Ekblad for one of the forwards.
An interesting scenario would be if a team wins the lottery, takes Reinhart or Bennett at 1 and the Sabres sit at 2 with Ekblad and the Sam (Reinhart or Bennett) that wasn't chosen at 1. The value of Ekblad at 2 looks even better than it does at 1, making the decision even more difficult if you are in the front office for the Buffalo Sabres.
The best case scenario? Islanders win the lottery, give the Sabres their pick, the Sabres draft 1 & 2, taking Ekblad and one of the two Forwards. But then do they have to deal with the potential regret of picking the wrong Forward? What if they took both Forwards and passed on Ekblad? That would definitely be an intriguing idea but man would it be tough to pass on Ekblad twice. The scenarios and situations could get pretty crazy but we'll have a much clearer picture on the night of April 15th.
Only 6 times in the last 19 years has the worst team in the NHL retained the #1 overall pick. The team(s) with the lowest odds to win the lottery that ended up winning the lottery were the Chicago Blackhawks in 1999 (8th) and the New Jersey Devils in 2011 (8th). According to this years percentage, each team would have had a 3.6% of winning heading into the lottery. Despite winning the lottery in these years, neither team picked 1st overall as there were stipulations that disallowed the lottery winner to move up more than 4 spots overall if their ping pong ball were to be picked. This has since changed, starting in 2013 which gave every team an opportunity to land the 1st overall pick. Since this change has been instituted there has been one draft in which the Colorado Avalanche moved from 2nd to 1st, drafting Nathan MacKinnon and subsequently making the playoffs the following year. A feat the Buffalo Sabres hope to accomplish as they are guaranteed a top 2 pick.
What do you want to happen? Who would you pick at #1 overall? Leave a comment and share your opinion! I'd personally like Sam Reinhart at 1 or 2 and Leon Draisaitl at 5 or 6 if we get the Islanders pick this year. I'll post more on these players so you can familiarize yourself with them if you are unaware of who they are and how they can help the Sabres. First, let's find out how the draft order shakes up!
Showing posts with label Buffalo Sabres. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Buffalo Sabres. Show all posts
Monday, April 14, 2014
Saturday, March 8, 2014
Buffalo Sabres Draft Pick Scenarios 2014-2016
I love professional sports drafts. I think the reason is because between the Buffalo Bills, Buffalo Sabres and the Houston Astros, their seasons are usually over halfway through and all I have to look forward to is the draft. Anyways, this article is about the NHL draft specifically, focusing on our beloved Buffalo Sabres and all of the draft picks they have stockpiled for the next three years.
Between the flurry of picks we've received, the picks we've traded and some of the conditions attached to those picks, I wanted to make a master list of those picks so I had a reference point going into this years draft. I hope you find as much use out of this article as I do because some of these conditional picks are pretty confusing.
The Sabres have acquired two conditional picks from two separate teams in two separate trades. One with the Islanders and one with the Blues. This leads to four possible scenarios on how the Sabres picks will shake up over the next three years. Here goes nothing, bear with me:
Conditional Pick #1 from the New York Islanders - The Islanders can protect their 2014 1st Round Pick if it's in the top 10, which it will be. If they decide to protect their 2014 pick, the Sabres automatically get the Islanders 2015 1st Round Pick regardless of where the pick is in the draft.
Conditional Pick #2 from the St. Louis Blues - The Sabres have acquired a 2016 3rd Round Pick from the Blues in the Miller deal. If the St. Louis Blues make the Western Conference Finals OR (this is not an and, this is an or) sign Ryan Miller before the 2014 NHL draft, the 2016 3rd Round Pick becomes a 2014 1st Round Pick. The kicker here is that if one of the two above happen and the 2016 3rd becomes a 2014 1st, the Sabres have to send the Blues their 2014 2nd and their 2014 3rd.
Wow, that's confusing. To make things easier on us, I'll do a breakdown of all four possible scenarios and how the Sabres draft picks in the first three rounds would look if each were to happen.
SCENARIO ONE - Islanders give the Sabres their 2014 1st Round Pick & St. Louis either makes Western Conference Finals or signs Ryan Miller before the draft.
2014 (5)
1st Round - BUF, NYI, STL (3)
2nd Round - BUF, WPG (2)
3rd Round - (0)
2015 (4)
1st Round - BUF, STL (2)
2nd Round - BUF, NYI (2)
3rd Round - (0)
2016 (4)
1st Round - BUF (1)
2nd Round - BUF, MIN (2)
3rd Round - BUF (1)
SCENARIO TWO - Islanders give the Sabres their 2014 1st Round Pick & St. Louis does not make Western Conference Finals nor do they sign Ryan Miller before the draft.
2014 (6)
1st Round - BUF, NYI (2)
2nd Round - BUF, WPG, MIN (3)
3rd Round - BUF (1)
2015 (4)
1st Round - BUF, STL (2)
2nd Round - BUF, NYI (2)
3rd Round - (0)
2016 (5)
1st Round - BUF (1)
2nd Round - BUF, MIN (2)
3rd Round - BUF, STL (2)
SCENARIO THREE - Islanders protect their 2014 1st Round Pick, give the Sabres their 2015 1st Round Pick & St. Louis either makes Western Conference Finals or signs Ryan Miller before the draft.
2014 (4)
1st Round - BUF, STL (2)
2nd Round - BUF, WPG (2)
3rd Round - (0)
2015 (5)
1st Round - BUF, NYI, STL (3)
2nd Round - BUF, NYI (2)
3rd Round - (0)
2016 (4)
1st Round - BUF (1)
2nd Round - BUF, MIN (2)
3rd Round - BUF (1)
SCENARIO FOUR - Islanders protect their 2014 1st Round Pick, give the Sabres their 2015 1st Round Pick & St. Louis does not make Western Conference Finals nor do they sign Ryan Miller before the draft.
2014 (5)
1st Round - BUF (1)
2nd Round - BUF, WPG, MIN (3)
3rd Round - BUF (1)
2015 (5)
1st Round - BUF, NYI, STL (3)
2nd Round - BUF, NYI (2)
3rd Round - (0)
2016 (5)
1st Round - BUF (1)
2nd Round - BUF, MIN (2)
3rd Round - BUF, STL (2)
With the 2015 NHL draft being the Connor McDavid sweepstakes, I would love as much ammunition as possible and that would be either Scenario 3 or 4 where the Sabres get three first round picks. The common denominator would be the New York Islanders holding on to their draft pick this year and giving us their 2015 draft pick instead. With the Sabres and Islanders set to be pretty bad, this puts the Sabres in a great position to win the Connor McDavid sweepstakes.
With that being said, the Islanders would be crazy to take themselves out of the running for Mr. McDavid so I expect them to give us their 2014 pick and hold on to their 2015 pick. With that being said, it should give the Sabres two picks within the top five of this years draft which should help speed up the rebuilding process as these two players could very much be NHL ready prospects.
I hope you enjoyed this article. Save it for future use and use it as a reference going forward for this years draft and the two that will follow. Hopefully Silver Lining Sports is still going strong in 2016! Go Sabres,
Between the flurry of picks we've received, the picks we've traded and some of the conditions attached to those picks, I wanted to make a master list of those picks so I had a reference point going into this years draft. I hope you find as much use out of this article as I do because some of these conditional picks are pretty confusing.
The Sabres have acquired two conditional picks from two separate teams in two separate trades. One with the Islanders and one with the Blues. This leads to four possible scenarios on how the Sabres picks will shake up over the next three years. Here goes nothing, bear with me:
Conditional Pick #1 from the New York Islanders - The Islanders can protect their 2014 1st Round Pick if it's in the top 10, which it will be. If they decide to protect their 2014 pick, the Sabres automatically get the Islanders 2015 1st Round Pick regardless of where the pick is in the draft.
Conditional Pick #2 from the St. Louis Blues - The Sabres have acquired a 2016 3rd Round Pick from the Blues in the Miller deal. If the St. Louis Blues make the Western Conference Finals OR (this is not an and, this is an or) sign Ryan Miller before the 2014 NHL draft, the 2016 3rd Round Pick becomes a 2014 1st Round Pick. The kicker here is that if one of the two above happen and the 2016 3rd becomes a 2014 1st, the Sabres have to send the Blues their 2014 2nd and their 2014 3rd.
Wow, that's confusing. To make things easier on us, I'll do a breakdown of all four possible scenarios and how the Sabres draft picks in the first three rounds would look if each were to happen.
SCENARIO ONE - Islanders give the Sabres their 2014 1st Round Pick & St. Louis either makes Western Conference Finals or signs Ryan Miller before the draft.
2014 (5)
1st Round - BUF, NYI, STL (3)
2nd Round - BUF, WPG (2)
3rd Round - (0)
2015 (4)
1st Round - BUF, STL (2)
2nd Round - BUF, NYI (2)
3rd Round - (0)
2016 (4)
1st Round - BUF (1)
2nd Round - BUF, MIN (2)
3rd Round - BUF (1)
SCENARIO TWO - Islanders give the Sabres their 2014 1st Round Pick & St. Louis does not make Western Conference Finals nor do they sign Ryan Miller before the draft.
2014 (6)
1st Round - BUF, NYI (2)
2nd Round - BUF, WPG, MIN (3)
3rd Round - BUF (1)
2015 (4)
1st Round - BUF, STL (2)
2nd Round - BUF, NYI (2)
3rd Round - (0)
2016 (5)
1st Round - BUF (1)
2nd Round - BUF, MIN (2)
3rd Round - BUF, STL (2)
SCENARIO THREE - Islanders protect their 2014 1st Round Pick, give the Sabres their 2015 1st Round Pick & St. Louis either makes Western Conference Finals or signs Ryan Miller before the draft.
2014 (4)
1st Round - BUF, STL (2)
2nd Round - BUF, WPG (2)
3rd Round - (0)
2015 (5)
1st Round - BUF, NYI, STL (3)
2nd Round - BUF, NYI (2)
3rd Round - (0)
2016 (4)
1st Round - BUF (1)
2nd Round - BUF, MIN (2)
3rd Round - BUF (1)
SCENARIO FOUR - Islanders protect their 2014 1st Round Pick, give the Sabres their 2015 1st Round Pick & St. Louis does not make Western Conference Finals nor do they sign Ryan Miller before the draft.
2014 (5)
1st Round - BUF (1)
2nd Round - BUF, WPG, MIN (3)
3rd Round - BUF (1)
2015 (5)
1st Round - BUF, NYI, STL (3)
2nd Round - BUF, NYI (2)
3rd Round - (0)
2016 (5)
1st Round - BUF (1)
2nd Round - BUF, MIN (2)
3rd Round - BUF, STL (2)
With the 2015 NHL draft being the Connor McDavid sweepstakes, I would love as much ammunition as possible and that would be either Scenario 3 or 4 where the Sabres get three first round picks. The common denominator would be the New York Islanders holding on to their draft pick this year and giving us their 2015 draft pick instead. With the Sabres and Islanders set to be pretty bad, this puts the Sabres in a great position to win the Connor McDavid sweepstakes.
With that being said, the Islanders would be crazy to take themselves out of the running for Mr. McDavid so I expect them to give us their 2014 pick and hold on to their 2015 pick. With that being said, it should give the Sabres two picks within the top five of this years draft which should help speed up the rebuilding process as these two players could very much be NHL ready prospects.
I hope you enjoyed this article. Save it for future use and use it as a reference going forward for this years draft and the two that will follow. Hopefully Silver Lining Sports is still going strong in 2016! Go Sabres,
Friday, March 7, 2014
Buffalo Sabres Trade Deadline Report Card
The trade deadline has come and gone and the Sabres further strengthened the notion that they are in full on rebuild mode. We all knew that, but this trade deadline reinforced that. It's refreshing though in my opinion. Some teams try to build a new house on an old foundation and that doesn't always work. The Sabres are blowing everything up, laying down a new foundation and hoping their house is going to be as strong as ever. Time will tell. Let's take a look at some of the bricks that were shipped out and which new ones were brought in to support the future.
Trade One - Buffalo Sabres & St. Louis Blues:
Buffalo Receives: Jaroslav Halak (F), Chris Stewart (F), William Carrier (F), 2015 1st Round Pick - STL, 2016 3rd Round Pick - STL
St. Louis Receives: Ryan Miller (G), Steve Ott (F)
Grade: A-
Comments: People don't understand how tough it is to trade a goaltender in the NHL at the deadline. Teams that are in the playoff hunt usually have good goaltending and don't need any more. Teams that are cellar dwellers are there usually because of bad goaltending but can hardly justify being buyers if they aren't in the running. The best case scenario is if a playoff team lost their starting goalie right before the deadline and needs to replace him to keep their cup hopes alive. That didn't happen but what the Sabres did find in a trade partner, was a team that felt they were a Stanley Cup caliber team but their weakness was between the pipes. Halak is good, he's solid, he's an Olympic goaltender but is he Ryan Miller? The St. Louis Blues didn't think so.
I already broke this trade down in my previous post so I won't spend much time on it but I felt what they got for a goaltender that was going to walk at the end of the season was impressive.
The 2016 3rd Round Pick can become a 2014 1st Round Pick if the Blues make the Western Conference Championship or if they fail to accomplish that but sign Ryan Miller prior to the 2014 NHL Draft. If either of the above happen and the 2016 3rd Round Pick becomes a 2014 1st Round Pick for Buffalo, the Sabres send the Blues a 2nd and 3rd Round Pick in the 2014 draft in return.
Trade Two - Buffalo Sabres & Los Angeles Kings:
Buffalo Receives: Hudson Fasching (F), Nicolas Deslauriers (F)
Los Angeles Receives: Brayden McNabb (D), 2014 2nd Round Pick - LA, 2015 2nd Round Pick - LA
Grade: B-
Comments: I'm torn here. I really like Brayden McNabb and I thought two 2nd round picks were a bit much to give up in addition to McNabb but at the same time, I really like Hudson Fasching. I think he is gong to be a future top six forward for the Sabres. The Kings have some great forward prospects in Toffoli, Vey and Zykov but all that does is make guys like Hudson Fasching available and the Sabres took advantage. Fasching is mature, thick and can score. He has excelled on every level and is even doing so as a freshman with the NCAA powerhouse Minnesota Golden Gophers.
Nicolas Deslauriers is no slouch either. After switching from defense to forward, he lead the Kings AHL affiliate in both shots and goals. I expect Deslauriers to be a guy that bounces between the AHL and NHL quite a bit over the next few years.
So the Sabres gave up McNabb, who I think I liked more than the Sabres did and the two picks they acquired when they shipped Robyn Regehr to Los Angeles last year. So the Sabres traded Robyn Regehr and Brayden McNabb for Hudson Fasching and Nicolas Deslauriers. Not bad for what they're trying to do.
Trade Three - Buffalo Sabres & Minnesota Wild
Buffalo Receives: Torrey Mitchell (F), 2014 2nd Round Pick - WPG, 2016 2nd Round Pick - MIN
Minnesota Receives: Matt Moulson (F), Cody McCormick (F)
Grade: B
Comments: Let's just get it out of the way. Mitchell and McCormick both suck so let's just consider these two players a wash in this deal. With that being said, let's analyze the centerpiece of this trade which is Matt Moulson. Matt Moulson brought back a 2014 2nd Round Pick from Winnipeg which should be in the top 1/3 of the round and also a 2016 2nd Round Pick from Minnesota.
Two 2nd Round Picks for a player acquired earlier in the season that was destined to walk at the end of the season. It's crazy to think that the Sabres once acquired a 1st Round Pick for Paul Gaustad but failed to acquire a similar return for a player much better than him, in Matt Moulson, but that was the market this deadline and the Sabres did what they had to do. I'll miss Moulson. He was a great player, could put the puck in the net and actually seemed happy to be in Buffalo despite being a rental player. It's not an impossible thought that he may return one day if the Sabres are contending and they need a veteran.
Trade Four - Buffalo Sabres & Washington Capitals
Buffalo Receives: Michal Neuvirth (G), Rostislav Klesla (D)
Washington Receives: Jaroslav Halak (G), 2015 3rd Round Pick - BUF
Grade: C+
Comments: Jaroslav Halak was miserable here. He was 100% walking at the end of the season, had a $4+ million cap hit and probably would have been nothing but a cancer if he remained here. The Sabres did the smart thing by flipping him to a team that he knocked out of the playoffs a few years back. The Sabres in return got a younger goalie, hungry for a fresh start who is under control for a season beyond 2014. Michael Neuvirth costs less and can be a 1-2 punch with Jhonas Enroth not only this season but next season as well and for a reasonable price with a cap hit just a shade above $2 million.
I wish we could have just swapped goaltenders but I suppose the Capitals said we were getting a younger, more cost controlled, longer contracted goalie and asked that we threw in something so we exchanged a 3rd for veteran defenseman Rostislav Klesla who will go to AHL, offer some veteran leadership and be available to the Sabres in case of injuries to the big club. I look forward to watching Neuvirth play this season and beyond.
Bonus Trade - Buffalo Sabres & New York Islanders
Buffalo Receives: Matt Moulson (F), 2014 or 2015 1st Round Pick - NYI, 2015 2nd Round Pick - NYI
New York Receives: Thomas Vanek (F)
Grade: A+
Comments: The Sabres traded Vanek to the Islanders, got two great picks and a player that I don't think is too far behind Vanek in terms of talent, in Matt Moulson. The best part of this is that the Sabres got a half of a season out of Moulson and flipped him at the deadline.
If you include everything that the Sabres got for Moulson, when all is said and done, the Sabres traded Thomas Vanek for the following; 2014 or 2015 1st Round Pick - NYI, 2015 2nd Round Pick - NYI, 2014 2nd Round Pick - WPG and 2016 2nd Round Pick - MIN.
That's crazy! One 1st Round Pick & three 2nd Round Picks for Thomas Vanek. What a haul.
The rebuild is upon us in Buffalo, NY. What are your thoughts on what Buffalo did at the deadline and the direction the team is heading? They are flushed with young talent and stacked with draft picks. Keep your eyes peeled for my next article which will breakdown every scenario and every pick that Buffalo has in the first 3 rounds over the next 3 years! The scenarios include what the New York Islanders will do with this years 1st Round Pick and what St. Louis has to do for the Sabres to get an additional 1st Round Pick out of them.
Trade One - Buffalo Sabres & St. Louis Blues:
Buffalo Receives: Jaroslav Halak (F), Chris Stewart (F), William Carrier (F), 2015 1st Round Pick - STL, 2016 3rd Round Pick - STL
St. Louis Receives: Ryan Miller (G), Steve Ott (F)
Grade: A-
Comments: People don't understand how tough it is to trade a goaltender in the NHL at the deadline. Teams that are in the playoff hunt usually have good goaltending and don't need any more. Teams that are cellar dwellers are there usually because of bad goaltending but can hardly justify being buyers if they aren't in the running. The best case scenario is if a playoff team lost their starting goalie right before the deadline and needs to replace him to keep their cup hopes alive. That didn't happen but what the Sabres did find in a trade partner, was a team that felt they were a Stanley Cup caliber team but their weakness was between the pipes. Halak is good, he's solid, he's an Olympic goaltender but is he Ryan Miller? The St. Louis Blues didn't think so.
I already broke this trade down in my previous post so I won't spend much time on it but I felt what they got for a goaltender that was going to walk at the end of the season was impressive.
The 2016 3rd Round Pick can become a 2014 1st Round Pick if the Blues make the Western Conference Championship or if they fail to accomplish that but sign Ryan Miller prior to the 2014 NHL Draft. If either of the above happen and the 2016 3rd Round Pick becomes a 2014 1st Round Pick for Buffalo, the Sabres send the Blues a 2nd and 3rd Round Pick in the 2014 draft in return.
Trade Two - Buffalo Sabres & Los Angeles Kings:
Buffalo Receives: Hudson Fasching (F), Nicolas Deslauriers (F)
Los Angeles Receives: Brayden McNabb (D), 2014 2nd Round Pick - LA, 2015 2nd Round Pick - LA
Grade: B-
Comments: I'm torn here. I really like Brayden McNabb and I thought two 2nd round picks were a bit much to give up in addition to McNabb but at the same time, I really like Hudson Fasching. I think he is gong to be a future top six forward for the Sabres. The Kings have some great forward prospects in Toffoli, Vey and Zykov but all that does is make guys like Hudson Fasching available and the Sabres took advantage. Fasching is mature, thick and can score. He has excelled on every level and is even doing so as a freshman with the NCAA powerhouse Minnesota Golden Gophers.
Nicolas Deslauriers is no slouch either. After switching from defense to forward, he lead the Kings AHL affiliate in both shots and goals. I expect Deslauriers to be a guy that bounces between the AHL and NHL quite a bit over the next few years.
So the Sabres gave up McNabb, who I think I liked more than the Sabres did and the two picks they acquired when they shipped Robyn Regehr to Los Angeles last year. So the Sabres traded Robyn Regehr and Brayden McNabb for Hudson Fasching and Nicolas Deslauriers. Not bad for what they're trying to do.
Trade Three - Buffalo Sabres & Minnesota Wild
Buffalo Receives: Torrey Mitchell (F), 2014 2nd Round Pick - WPG, 2016 2nd Round Pick - MIN
Minnesota Receives: Matt Moulson (F), Cody McCormick (F)
Grade: B
Comments: Let's just get it out of the way. Mitchell and McCormick both suck so let's just consider these two players a wash in this deal. With that being said, let's analyze the centerpiece of this trade which is Matt Moulson. Matt Moulson brought back a 2014 2nd Round Pick from Winnipeg which should be in the top 1/3 of the round and also a 2016 2nd Round Pick from Minnesota.
Two 2nd Round Picks for a player acquired earlier in the season that was destined to walk at the end of the season. It's crazy to think that the Sabres once acquired a 1st Round Pick for Paul Gaustad but failed to acquire a similar return for a player much better than him, in Matt Moulson, but that was the market this deadline and the Sabres did what they had to do. I'll miss Moulson. He was a great player, could put the puck in the net and actually seemed happy to be in Buffalo despite being a rental player. It's not an impossible thought that he may return one day if the Sabres are contending and they need a veteran.
Trade Four - Buffalo Sabres & Washington Capitals
Buffalo Receives: Michal Neuvirth (G), Rostislav Klesla (D)
Washington Receives: Jaroslav Halak (G), 2015 3rd Round Pick - BUF
Grade: C+
Comments: Jaroslav Halak was miserable here. He was 100% walking at the end of the season, had a $4+ million cap hit and probably would have been nothing but a cancer if he remained here. The Sabres did the smart thing by flipping him to a team that he knocked out of the playoffs a few years back. The Sabres in return got a younger goalie, hungry for a fresh start who is under control for a season beyond 2014. Michael Neuvirth costs less and can be a 1-2 punch with Jhonas Enroth not only this season but next season as well and for a reasonable price with a cap hit just a shade above $2 million.
I wish we could have just swapped goaltenders but I suppose the Capitals said we were getting a younger, more cost controlled, longer contracted goalie and asked that we threw in something so we exchanged a 3rd for veteran defenseman Rostislav Klesla who will go to AHL, offer some veteran leadership and be available to the Sabres in case of injuries to the big club. I look forward to watching Neuvirth play this season and beyond.
Bonus Trade - Buffalo Sabres & New York Islanders
Buffalo Receives: Matt Moulson (F), 2014 or 2015 1st Round Pick - NYI, 2015 2nd Round Pick - NYI
New York Receives: Thomas Vanek (F)
Grade: A+
Comments: The Sabres traded Vanek to the Islanders, got two great picks and a player that I don't think is too far behind Vanek in terms of talent, in Matt Moulson. The best part of this is that the Sabres got a half of a season out of Moulson and flipped him at the deadline.
If you include everything that the Sabres got for Moulson, when all is said and done, the Sabres traded Thomas Vanek for the following; 2014 or 2015 1st Round Pick - NYI, 2015 2nd Round Pick - NYI, 2014 2nd Round Pick - WPG and 2016 2nd Round Pick - MIN.
That's crazy! One 1st Round Pick & three 2nd Round Picks for Thomas Vanek. What a haul.
The rebuild is upon us in Buffalo, NY. What are your thoughts on what Buffalo did at the deadline and the direction the team is heading? They are flushed with young talent and stacked with draft picks. Keep your eyes peeled for my next article which will breakdown every scenario and every pick that Buffalo has in the first 3 rounds over the next 3 years! The scenarios include what the New York Islanders will do with this years 1st Round Pick and what St. Louis has to do for the Sabres to get an additional 1st Round Pick out of them.
Tuesday, March 4, 2014
Sabres Trade Deadline Primer & More
I told myself I would get back into blogging and write, at the very least, one article a month, if not more but sometimes life has other plans and next thing you know a few months go by and you haven't written anything since the Buffalo Bills were in the playoff hunt! No seriously, that's not a joke, it's been that long.
What better time to start getting back into the blogging than with the NHL trade deadline one day away, NFL free agency one week away and the MLB regular season less than a month away?
Chris Stewart is a big, physical forward with a scoring touch which makes me think Buffalo might want to keep him. He isn't the hardest working player as he tends to disappear at times when playing good competition and reappears against the leagues bottom feeders, but he can score and bang the body. He's pretty much Drew Stafford but with a fresh start.
Teams Interested: OTT, EDM, NYR, BOS
Predicted Destination: OTT - They've liked him for quite some time and Murray has the connections and knows their players well.
Predicted Haul: Robin Lehner if Halak is traded and the Sabres don't get a goalie in return since Murray loves bigger goalies and the only one remaining on his roster would be the complete opposite of what he likes, Mark Stone (RW), Shane Prince (LW), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (C), and an honorable mention to local product Cole Schneider (RW) who I played against while he was at St. Joe's in the Federation HS Hockey League. I think Stone or Price and a 2nd/3rd round pick gets Stewart's services.
Christian Ehrhoff - Chances of being traded? 33%
A top notch defenseman should bring back a nice haul for a rebuilding team. A good portion of his contract has been paid since it was front loaded but the kicker is that the team who acquires him has to take on his full contract as the Sabres can't take on any remaining players salary since they are already at 3, which is the CBA rule. I would love for Ehrhoff to be traded. He is good but I think he can bring the most back in a trade and we can replace him with one of our defensemen in the AHL with NHL experience. Will it be a downgrade? Of course, but that's expected in a rebuild. You have to blow everything up before you can lay down a new foundation.
Teams Interested: DET, COL, LA
Predicted Desination: DET - If he gets traded, it's to Detroit. They have been linked to him most frequently and it makes sense. This organization prides itself on its rock solid defense and that's how they like to win, even though they have a ton of talent up front. Their talent up front has been laboring all year with injuries. This trade may be more for their future seasons than it is this season.
Predicted Haul: Some players to keep an eye on include forwards Anthony Mantha, Teemu Pulkkinen, Tomas Jurco, Tomas Tatar, Zach Nastastiuk and Joakim Andersson. You're probably thinking, of course if you name all of these players, you're bound to be right. I just wanted to show off all the talent in their system! They are one of the best teams at drafting and it's times like these where it really pays off. They can send some good prospects over to Buffalo, get one of the league's better defense and still have their cupboards loaded with talent. I think a deal along the lines of Tomas Tatar and Teemu Pulkinnen for Ehrhoff and a pick makes sense for both sides.
Henrik Tallinder - Chances of being traded? 25%
Solid defenseman who was supposed to link back up with Tyler Myers and re-ignite the fireworks that was Tyler Myers rookie year. That didn't happen. There's no room for Henrik Tallinder in a rebuild.
Predicted Destination: DET, COL, Any team that needs a steady veteran defenseman for a playoff push.
Predicted Haul: These players are dime a dozen at the deadline. I think he can bring in a 3rd round pick or be part of a larger package involving one of the players above.
Honorable Mentions - Chances of being traded less than 25%
I guess you can say everybody but Girgensons at this point? I don't think players like Ennis, Myers or Hodsgon are going anywhere but some of the more realistic trade chips, not listed above include:
- Drew Stafford
Wild Card - Tyler Myers
Additional Notes (Miller, Ott, St. Louis Blues, New York Islanders Conditional Pick)
In regards to the Miller/Ott trade with St. Louis, I love the deal. I haven't had time to post an opinion on it so it's a bit late but better late than never. If we didn't trade him, he was walking at the end of the season for nothing. He's a top 3 goalie in the league and he will be missed. We were spoiled as fans to have him and we took him for granted. We got a 1st round pick in the 2015 NHL Draft which is supposed to be STACKED, Jaroslav Halak who can be flipped for more, Chris Stewart who can be flipped for even more, a solid prospect in William Carrier (pronounced Carry-eh) , and a conditional 2016 pick.
The key with the 2016 pick, which is currently a 3rd round pick, is that it could become ANOTHER 1st round pick, in this years draft. If the Blues make the Western Conference Championship OR if Miller re-signs with St. Louis before the 2014 draft which isn't unrealistic. If Miller doesn't win a Stanley Cup and genuinely wants to rather than chasing money, re-signing with St. Louis seems like a good career move for him. Heck, both of these things can happen. The kicker is that if one of these two happen and this conditional pick turns into a 1st round pick, the 1st round pick will be between 27th-30th in this draft and in return the Sabres have to send St. Louis two 2014 draft picks. One is Minnesota's 2nd round pick and the other is their own 3rd round so it's like trading a 2nd and 3rd round pick for a late 1st which seems like a normal draft day trade anyway.
So let's do a quick breakdown of this trade again, best case scenario for the Sabres:
Buffalo gets:
St. Louis gets:
How cool would it be if Steve Ott came back and signed with the Sabres in the off-season or dare I say it, Ryan Miller after he wins the Stanley Cup with St. Louis!? I can dream right?
One final thing. In regards to the New York Islanders 2014 conditional draft pick from the Moulson/Vanek deal. If they finish with a top 10 pick in this draft, they can protect their pick, hold on to it and give Buffalo their 2015 1st round pick instead but my thing is, their team is bad. Tavares is hurt, they have no goaltending, they traded Moulson, they're trading Vanek. They seem like a virtual lock for a top 10 pick next year too. Next year is a stacked draft compared to this years draft. They could very well be the worst team and be in the running for Connor McDavid. There is no Connor McDavid in this draft, not even close. Why would they stay in the top 3 in a weak draft and give the Buffalo Sabres potentially TWO top 3 picks in the Connor McDavid sweepstakes? I think they would be crazy to protect their pick this year and give Buffalo their 1st pick next year, unprotected. My prediction is the Islander gives the Sabres their 1st round pick this year and Buffalo picks twice in the top 3 in the 2014 NHL draft.
What better time to start getting back into the blogging than with the NHL trade deadline one day away, NFL free agency one week away and the MLB regular season less than a month away?
As much as I would love for this to be well written, well researched and edited through once or twice, it won't be. I have a small window of time to get this posted out. I have hockey tonight and my equipment, being in the car since my last skate, last Tuesday, needs a good thawing. Here's a quick write up on what I think will happen/what I want to happen at tomorrow's trade deadline. It will be specifically geared towards the Buffalo Sabres. Here goes:
Matt Moulson - Chances of being traded? 100%
Matt Moulson was acquired earlier in the season from the the New York Islanders along with a conditional 2014 (or 2015) 1st round pick and a 2015 2nd round pick for lazy but talented, Thomas Vanek. Moulson has been a gem since arriving in Buffalo. He has welcomed the city like a true professional and has been productive since his arrival. Everyone knew that he would be flipped at the deadline and that time has finally arrived.
He did get hurt before the Olympic break which put his trade deadline availability in question since you can't trade an injured player but the Olympics was a blessing in disguise as he healed up quite nicely. With the stars aligned as originally planned, the flipping of Matt Moulson, who is an UFA at the end of the season, is set to make the Thomas Vanek deal look even better.
Teams Interested: PIT, LA, ANA, NYR
Predicted Destination: LA
Predicted Haul: Some prospects to keep an eye on include Tyler Toffoli (RW), Valentin Zykov (RW), Linden Vey (C). I think one of these three and a pick get it done.
Jaroslav Halak - Chances of being traded? 50%
Jaroslav Halak was a part of the Ryan Miller deal and may not even play in a game as a Buffalo Sabre. He is an UFA at the end of the season and sounds none too happy to be in Buffalo. Rightfully so, he went from the playoff Blues, to the Olympics where he represented his country at a high level, back to the playoff Blues and now on the hapless and dysfunctional Sabres. I thought he was destined for the Minnesota Wild but the price may have been too high as the Wild acquired the vodka chugging, space loving Ilya Bryzgalov. The goaltending market is thin in the sense that no teams really need one and the ones that do, know that they don't have much competition so they don't have to throw the kitchen sink to acquire someone like Halak. They can sit back and watch the Sabres keep asking for less and less until a team takes him off their hands.
Teams Interested: PIT, WSH, VAN, MTL, PHI
Predicted Desination: WSH - If Halak goes anywhere. I think it's Washington. He knocked them out of the playoffs a few years back and offers a veteran presence to man the pipes along with whichever goalie doesn't get traded back to Buffalo in this deal.
Predicted Haul: Goaltenders Michael Neuvirth or Braden Holtby. If it's Halak for a pick, I expect the pick to be no better than a late 2nd round pick but my most realistic scenario is a 3rd round pick and/or a throw in guy coming back to the Sabres as a salary dump.
Chris Stewart - Chances of being traded? 40%
Matt Moulson - Chances of being traded? 100%
Matt Moulson was acquired earlier in the season from the the New York Islanders along with a conditional 2014 (or 2015) 1st round pick and a 2015 2nd round pick for lazy but talented, Thomas Vanek. Moulson has been a gem since arriving in Buffalo. He has welcomed the city like a true professional and has been productive since his arrival. Everyone knew that he would be flipped at the deadline and that time has finally arrived.
He did get hurt before the Olympic break which put his trade deadline availability in question since you can't trade an injured player but the Olympics was a blessing in disguise as he healed up quite nicely. With the stars aligned as originally planned, the flipping of Matt Moulson, who is an UFA at the end of the season, is set to make the Thomas Vanek deal look even better.
Teams Interested: PIT, LA, ANA, NYR
Predicted Destination: LA
Predicted Haul: Some prospects to keep an eye on include Tyler Toffoli (RW), Valentin Zykov (RW), Linden Vey (C). I think one of these three and a pick get it done.
Jaroslav Halak - Chances of being traded? 50%
Jaroslav Halak was a part of the Ryan Miller deal and may not even play in a game as a Buffalo Sabre. He is an UFA at the end of the season and sounds none too happy to be in Buffalo. Rightfully so, he went from the playoff Blues, to the Olympics where he represented his country at a high level, back to the playoff Blues and now on the hapless and dysfunctional Sabres. I thought he was destined for the Minnesota Wild but the price may have been too high as the Wild acquired the vodka chugging, space loving Ilya Bryzgalov. The goaltending market is thin in the sense that no teams really need one and the ones that do, know that they don't have much competition so they don't have to throw the kitchen sink to acquire someone like Halak. They can sit back and watch the Sabres keep asking for less and less until a team takes him off their hands.
Teams Interested: PIT, WSH, VAN, MTL, PHI
Predicted Desination: WSH - If Halak goes anywhere. I think it's Washington. He knocked them out of the playoffs a few years back and offers a veteran presence to man the pipes along with whichever goalie doesn't get traded back to Buffalo in this deal.
Predicted Haul: Goaltenders Michael Neuvirth or Braden Holtby. If it's Halak for a pick, I expect the pick to be no better than a late 2nd round pick but my most realistic scenario is a 3rd round pick and/or a throw in guy coming back to the Sabres as a salary dump.
Chris Stewart - Chances of being traded? 40%
Chris Stewart is a big, physical forward with a scoring touch which makes me think Buffalo might want to keep him. He isn't the hardest working player as he tends to disappear at times when playing good competition and reappears against the leagues bottom feeders, but he can score and bang the body. He's pretty much Drew Stafford but with a fresh start.
Teams Interested: OTT, EDM, NYR, BOS
Predicted Destination: OTT - They've liked him for quite some time and Murray has the connections and knows their players well.
Predicted Haul: Robin Lehner if Halak is traded and the Sabres don't get a goalie in return since Murray loves bigger goalies and the only one remaining on his roster would be the complete opposite of what he likes, Mark Stone (RW), Shane Prince (LW), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (C), and an honorable mention to local product Cole Schneider (RW) who I played against while he was at St. Joe's in the Federation HS Hockey League. I think Stone or Price and a 2nd/3rd round pick gets Stewart's services.
Christian Ehrhoff - Chances of being traded? 33%
A top notch defenseman should bring back a nice haul for a rebuilding team. A good portion of his contract has been paid since it was front loaded but the kicker is that the team who acquires him has to take on his full contract as the Sabres can't take on any remaining players salary since they are already at 3, which is the CBA rule. I would love for Ehrhoff to be traded. He is good but I think he can bring the most back in a trade and we can replace him with one of our defensemen in the AHL with NHL experience. Will it be a downgrade? Of course, but that's expected in a rebuild. You have to blow everything up before you can lay down a new foundation.
Teams Interested: DET, COL, LA
Predicted Desination: DET - If he gets traded, it's to Detroit. They have been linked to him most frequently and it makes sense. This organization prides itself on its rock solid defense and that's how they like to win, even though they have a ton of talent up front. Their talent up front has been laboring all year with injuries. This trade may be more for their future seasons than it is this season.
Predicted Haul: Some players to keep an eye on include forwards Anthony Mantha, Teemu Pulkkinen, Tomas Jurco, Tomas Tatar, Zach Nastastiuk and Joakim Andersson. You're probably thinking, of course if you name all of these players, you're bound to be right. I just wanted to show off all the talent in their system! They are one of the best teams at drafting and it's times like these where it really pays off. They can send some good prospects over to Buffalo, get one of the league's better defense and still have their cupboards loaded with talent. I think a deal along the lines of Tomas Tatar and Teemu Pulkinnen for Ehrhoff and a pick makes sense for both sides.
Henrik Tallinder - Chances of being traded? 25%
Solid defenseman who was supposed to link back up with Tyler Myers and re-ignite the fireworks that was Tyler Myers rookie year. That didn't happen. There's no room for Henrik Tallinder in a rebuild.
Predicted Destination: DET, COL, Any team that needs a steady veteran defenseman for a playoff push.
Predicted Haul: These players are dime a dozen at the deadline. I think he can bring in a 3rd round pick or be part of a larger package involving one of the players above.
Honorable Mentions - Chances of being traded less than 25%
I guess you can say everybody but Girgensons at this point? I don't think players like Ennis, Myers or Hodsgon are going anywhere but some of the more realistic trade chips, not listed above include:
- Drew Stafford
- Marcus Foligno
- Zenon Konopka
- Jamie McBain
- Alexander Sulzer
Wild Card - Tyler Myers
I could see him going to a team like the Edmonton Oilers who have a plethora of forward depth but struggle mightily on the back-end and have for years. Sam Gagner has been dangled at the deadline for the last few years and Nail Yakupov seems to have worn out his welcome and might need a fresh start somewhere else. Food for thought; with guys like Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle and Hall, they might see a future cap problem and want to be proactive in avoiding that potentially hazardous situation. The only flaw in this is Myer's big contract but at $5.5 million, that's not too bad compared to what these forwards might ask for as the cap continues to rise. Grigorenko and Myers in a block buster deal for one of these three studs? You never know...
Additional Notes (Miller, Ott, St. Louis Blues, New York Islanders Conditional Pick)
In regards to the Miller/Ott trade with St. Louis, I love the deal. I haven't had time to post an opinion on it so it's a bit late but better late than never. If we didn't trade him, he was walking at the end of the season for nothing. He's a top 3 goalie in the league and he will be missed. We were spoiled as fans to have him and we took him for granted. We got a 1st round pick in the 2015 NHL Draft which is supposed to be STACKED, Jaroslav Halak who can be flipped for more, Chris Stewart who can be flipped for even more, a solid prospect in William Carrier (pronounced Carry-eh) , and a conditional 2016 pick.
The key with the 2016 pick, which is currently a 3rd round pick, is that it could become ANOTHER 1st round pick, in this years draft. If the Blues make the Western Conference Championship OR if Miller re-signs with St. Louis before the 2014 draft which isn't unrealistic. If Miller doesn't win a Stanley Cup and genuinely wants to rather than chasing money, re-signing with St. Louis seems like a good career move for him. Heck, both of these things can happen. The kicker is that if one of these two happen and this conditional pick turns into a 1st round pick, the 1st round pick will be between 27th-30th in this draft and in return the Sabres have to send St. Louis two 2014 draft picks. One is Minnesota's 2nd round pick and the other is their own 3rd round so it's like trading a 2nd and 3rd round pick for a late 1st which seems like a normal draft day trade anyway.
So let's do a quick breakdown of this trade again, best case scenario for the Sabres:
Buffalo gets:
2015 1st Round Pick - St. Louis
2014 1st Round Pick - St. Louis
William Carrier
(Insert Picks/Prospects/Players from Halak deal)
(Insert Picks/Prospects/Players from Stewart deal)
St. Louis gets:
Ryan Miller for 1/2 season
Steve Ott for 1/2 season
2014 2nd Round Pick - Minnesota
2014 3rd Round Pick - Buffalo
How cool would it be if Steve Ott came back and signed with the Sabres in the off-season or dare I say it, Ryan Miller after he wins the Stanley Cup with St. Louis!? I can dream right?
One final thing. In regards to the New York Islanders 2014 conditional draft pick from the Moulson/Vanek deal. If they finish with a top 10 pick in this draft, they can protect their pick, hold on to it and give Buffalo their 2015 1st round pick instead but my thing is, their team is bad. Tavares is hurt, they have no goaltending, they traded Moulson, they're trading Vanek. They seem like a virtual lock for a top 10 pick next year too. Next year is a stacked draft compared to this years draft. They could very well be the worst team and be in the running for Connor McDavid. There is no Connor McDavid in this draft, not even close. Why would they stay in the top 3 in a weak draft and give the Buffalo Sabres potentially TWO top 3 picks in the Connor McDavid sweepstakes? I think they would be crazy to protect their pick this year and give Buffalo their 1st pick next year, unprotected. My prediction is the Islander gives the Sabres their 1st round pick this year and Buffalo picks twice in the top 3 in the 2014 NHL draft.
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