What better time to start getting back into the blogging than with the NHL trade deadline one day away, NFL free agency one week away and the MLB regular season less than a month away?
As much as I would love for this to be well written, well researched and edited through once or twice, it won't be. I have a small window of time to get this posted out. I have hockey tonight and my equipment, being in the car since my last skate, last Tuesday, needs a good thawing. Here's a quick write up on what I think will happen/what I want to happen at tomorrow's trade deadline. It will be specifically geared towards the Buffalo Sabres. Here goes:
Matt Moulson - Chances of being traded? 100%
Matt Moulson was acquired earlier in the season from the the New York Islanders along with a conditional 2014 (or 2015) 1st round pick and a 2015 2nd round pick for lazy but talented, Thomas Vanek. Moulson has been a gem since arriving in Buffalo. He has welcomed the city like a true professional and has been productive since his arrival. Everyone knew that he would be flipped at the deadline and that time has finally arrived.
He did get hurt before the Olympic break which put his trade deadline availability in question since you can't trade an injured player but the Olympics was a blessing in disguise as he healed up quite nicely. With the stars aligned as originally planned, the flipping of Matt Moulson, who is an UFA at the end of the season, is set to make the Thomas Vanek deal look even better.
Teams Interested: PIT, LA, ANA, NYR
Predicted Destination: LA
Predicted Haul: Some prospects to keep an eye on include Tyler Toffoli (RW), Valentin Zykov (RW), Linden Vey (C). I think one of these three and a pick get it done.
Jaroslav Halak - Chances of being traded? 50%
Jaroslav Halak was a part of the Ryan Miller deal and may not even play in a game as a Buffalo Sabre. He is an UFA at the end of the season and sounds none too happy to be in Buffalo. Rightfully so, he went from the playoff Blues, to the Olympics where he represented his country at a high level, back to the playoff Blues and now on the hapless and dysfunctional Sabres. I thought he was destined for the Minnesota Wild but the price may have been too high as the Wild acquired the vodka chugging, space loving Ilya Bryzgalov. The goaltending market is thin in the sense that no teams really need one and the ones that do, know that they don't have much competition so they don't have to throw the kitchen sink to acquire someone like Halak. They can sit back and watch the Sabres keep asking for less and less until a team takes him off their hands.
Teams Interested: PIT, WSH, VAN, MTL, PHI
Predicted Desination: WSH - If Halak goes anywhere. I think it's Washington. He knocked them out of the playoffs a few years back and offers a veteran presence to man the pipes along with whichever goalie doesn't get traded back to Buffalo in this deal.
Predicted Haul: Goaltenders Michael Neuvirth or Braden Holtby. If it's Halak for a pick, I expect the pick to be no better than a late 2nd round pick but my most realistic scenario is a 3rd round pick and/or a throw in guy coming back to the Sabres as a salary dump.
Chris Stewart - Chances of being traded? 40%
Matt Moulson - Chances of being traded? 100%
Matt Moulson was acquired earlier in the season from the the New York Islanders along with a conditional 2014 (or 2015) 1st round pick and a 2015 2nd round pick for lazy but talented, Thomas Vanek. Moulson has been a gem since arriving in Buffalo. He has welcomed the city like a true professional and has been productive since his arrival. Everyone knew that he would be flipped at the deadline and that time has finally arrived.
He did get hurt before the Olympic break which put his trade deadline availability in question since you can't trade an injured player but the Olympics was a blessing in disguise as he healed up quite nicely. With the stars aligned as originally planned, the flipping of Matt Moulson, who is an UFA at the end of the season, is set to make the Thomas Vanek deal look even better.
Teams Interested: PIT, LA, ANA, NYR
Predicted Destination: LA
Predicted Haul: Some prospects to keep an eye on include Tyler Toffoli (RW), Valentin Zykov (RW), Linden Vey (C). I think one of these three and a pick get it done.
Jaroslav Halak - Chances of being traded? 50%
Jaroslav Halak was a part of the Ryan Miller deal and may not even play in a game as a Buffalo Sabre. He is an UFA at the end of the season and sounds none too happy to be in Buffalo. Rightfully so, he went from the playoff Blues, to the Olympics where he represented his country at a high level, back to the playoff Blues and now on the hapless and dysfunctional Sabres. I thought he was destined for the Minnesota Wild but the price may have been too high as the Wild acquired the vodka chugging, space loving Ilya Bryzgalov. The goaltending market is thin in the sense that no teams really need one and the ones that do, know that they don't have much competition so they don't have to throw the kitchen sink to acquire someone like Halak. They can sit back and watch the Sabres keep asking for less and less until a team takes him off their hands.
Teams Interested: PIT, WSH, VAN, MTL, PHI
Predicted Desination: WSH - If Halak goes anywhere. I think it's Washington. He knocked them out of the playoffs a few years back and offers a veteran presence to man the pipes along with whichever goalie doesn't get traded back to Buffalo in this deal.
Predicted Haul: Goaltenders Michael Neuvirth or Braden Holtby. If it's Halak for a pick, I expect the pick to be no better than a late 2nd round pick but my most realistic scenario is a 3rd round pick and/or a throw in guy coming back to the Sabres as a salary dump.
Chris Stewart - Chances of being traded? 40%
Chris Stewart is a big, physical forward with a scoring touch which makes me think Buffalo might want to keep him. He isn't the hardest working player as he tends to disappear at times when playing good competition and reappears against the leagues bottom feeders, but he can score and bang the body. He's pretty much Drew Stafford but with a fresh start.
Teams Interested: OTT, EDM, NYR, BOS
Predicted Destination: OTT - They've liked him for quite some time and Murray has the connections and knows their players well.
Predicted Haul: Robin Lehner if Halak is traded and the Sabres don't get a goalie in return since Murray loves bigger goalies and the only one remaining on his roster would be the complete opposite of what he likes, Mark Stone (RW), Shane Prince (LW), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (C), and an honorable mention to local product Cole Schneider (RW) who I played against while he was at St. Joe's in the Federation HS Hockey League. I think Stone or Price and a 2nd/3rd round pick gets Stewart's services.
Christian Ehrhoff - Chances of being traded? 33%
A top notch defenseman should bring back a nice haul for a rebuilding team. A good portion of his contract has been paid since it was front loaded but the kicker is that the team who acquires him has to take on his full contract as the Sabres can't take on any remaining players salary since they are already at 3, which is the CBA rule. I would love for Ehrhoff to be traded. He is good but I think he can bring the most back in a trade and we can replace him with one of our defensemen in the AHL with NHL experience. Will it be a downgrade? Of course, but that's expected in a rebuild. You have to blow everything up before you can lay down a new foundation.
Teams Interested: DET, COL, LA
Predicted Desination: DET - If he gets traded, it's to Detroit. They have been linked to him most frequently and it makes sense. This organization prides itself on its rock solid defense and that's how they like to win, even though they have a ton of talent up front. Their talent up front has been laboring all year with injuries. This trade may be more for their future seasons than it is this season.
Predicted Haul: Some players to keep an eye on include forwards Anthony Mantha, Teemu Pulkkinen, Tomas Jurco, Tomas Tatar, Zach Nastastiuk and Joakim Andersson. You're probably thinking, of course if you name all of these players, you're bound to be right. I just wanted to show off all the talent in their system! They are one of the best teams at drafting and it's times like these where it really pays off. They can send some good prospects over to Buffalo, get one of the league's better defense and still have their cupboards loaded with talent. I think a deal along the lines of Tomas Tatar and Teemu Pulkinnen for Ehrhoff and a pick makes sense for both sides.
Henrik Tallinder - Chances of being traded? 25%
Solid defenseman who was supposed to link back up with Tyler Myers and re-ignite the fireworks that was Tyler Myers rookie year. That didn't happen. There's no room for Henrik Tallinder in a rebuild.
Predicted Destination: DET, COL, Any team that needs a steady veteran defenseman for a playoff push.
Predicted Haul: These players are dime a dozen at the deadline. I think he can bring in a 3rd round pick or be part of a larger package involving one of the players above.
Honorable Mentions - Chances of being traded less than 25%
I guess you can say everybody but Girgensons at this point? I don't think players like Ennis, Myers or Hodsgon are going anywhere but some of the more realistic trade chips, not listed above include:
- Drew Stafford
- Marcus Foligno
- Zenon Konopka
- Jamie McBain
- Alexander Sulzer
Wild Card - Tyler Myers
I could see him going to a team like the Edmonton Oilers who have a plethora of forward depth but struggle mightily on the back-end and have for years. Sam Gagner has been dangled at the deadline for the last few years and Nail Yakupov seems to have worn out his welcome and might need a fresh start somewhere else. Food for thought; with guys like Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle and Hall, they might see a future cap problem and want to be proactive in avoiding that potentially hazardous situation. The only flaw in this is Myer's big contract but at $5.5 million, that's not too bad compared to what these forwards might ask for as the cap continues to rise. Grigorenko and Myers in a block buster deal for one of these three studs? You never know...
Additional Notes (Miller, Ott, St. Louis Blues, New York Islanders Conditional Pick)
In regards to the Miller/Ott trade with St. Louis, I love the deal. I haven't had time to post an opinion on it so it's a bit late but better late than never. If we didn't trade him, he was walking at the end of the season for nothing. He's a top 3 goalie in the league and he will be missed. We were spoiled as fans to have him and we took him for granted. We got a 1st round pick in the 2015 NHL Draft which is supposed to be STACKED, Jaroslav Halak who can be flipped for more, Chris Stewart who can be flipped for even more, a solid prospect in William Carrier (pronounced Carry-eh) , and a conditional 2016 pick.
The key with the 2016 pick, which is currently a 3rd round pick, is that it could become ANOTHER 1st round pick, in this years draft. If the Blues make the Western Conference Championship OR if Miller re-signs with St. Louis before the 2014 draft which isn't unrealistic. If Miller doesn't win a Stanley Cup and genuinely wants to rather than chasing money, re-signing with St. Louis seems like a good career move for him. Heck, both of these things can happen. The kicker is that if one of these two happen and this conditional pick turns into a 1st round pick, the 1st round pick will be between 27th-30th in this draft and in return the Sabres have to send St. Louis two 2014 draft picks. One is Minnesota's 2nd round pick and the other is their own 3rd round so it's like trading a 2nd and 3rd round pick for a late 1st which seems like a normal draft day trade anyway.
So let's do a quick breakdown of this trade again, best case scenario for the Sabres:
Buffalo gets:
2015 1st Round Pick - St. Louis
2014 1st Round Pick - St. Louis
William Carrier
(Insert Picks/Prospects/Players from Halak deal)
(Insert Picks/Prospects/Players from Stewart deal)
St. Louis gets:
Ryan Miller for 1/2 season
Steve Ott for 1/2 season
2014 2nd Round Pick - Minnesota
2014 3rd Round Pick - Buffalo
How cool would it be if Steve Ott came back and signed with the Sabres in the off-season or dare I say it, Ryan Miller after he wins the Stanley Cup with St. Louis!? I can dream right?
One final thing. In regards to the New York Islanders 2014 conditional draft pick from the Moulson/Vanek deal. If they finish with a top 10 pick in this draft, they can protect their pick, hold on to it and give Buffalo their 2015 1st round pick instead but my thing is, their team is bad. Tavares is hurt, they have no goaltending, they traded Moulson, they're trading Vanek. They seem like a virtual lock for a top 10 pick next year too. Next year is a stacked draft compared to this years draft. They could very well be the worst team and be in the running for Connor McDavid. There is no Connor McDavid in this draft, not even close. Why would they stay in the top 3 in a weak draft and give the Buffalo Sabres potentially TWO top 3 picks in the Connor McDavid sweepstakes? I think they would be crazy to protect their pick this year and give Buffalo their 1st pick next year, unprotected. My prediction is the Islander gives the Sabres their 1st round pick this year and Buffalo picks twice in the top 3 in the 2014 NHL draft.
No comments:
Post a Comment