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Thursday, May 8, 2014

2014 NFL 1st Round Mock Draft Predictions

1. Houston Texans - Jadeveon Clowney (DE - South Carolina) The Texans are unable to trade down so they "settle" for a defensive player that has been called a 'once in a generation prospect'.

2. St. Louis Rams - Greg Robinson (OT - Auburn) The Rams, who swear they are committed to Sam Bradford, get a mauling OT to help keep him upright and healthy.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars - Khalil Mack (LB - Buffalo) The Jaguars, who need a QB desperately, select defensive maven Khalil Mack instead.

4. Cleveland Browns - Johnny Manziel (QB - Texas A&M) The Browns have some options at this point. They have top prospects Sammy Watkins & Jake Matthews on the board, both positions of need, but instead select electrifying QB Johnny Manziel.

5. Oakland Raiders - Sammy Watkins (WR - Clemson) The Raiders will get a dozen calls from teams trying to trade up at this point and while they receive many entertaining offers, the organization that has fallen in love with speed over the years gives new QB Matt Schaub a legit target to throw to.

6. Atlanta Falcons - Jake Matthews (OT - Texas A&M) I feel like this pick is pretty likely to happen. The Falcons need a solid OT and unless they like Taylor Lewan more, they take one of the most polished prospects in this draft in Jake Matthews.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Mike Evans (WR - Texas A&M) The third Texas A&M prospect comes off the board in the top 7 when the Bucs draft Mike Evans to replace recently traded Mike Williams. If Manziel gets past the Browns and into the laps of the Bucs, they may pull the trigger but instead settle for his teammate to be paired up with Vincent Jackson.

8. Minnesota Vikings - Anthony Barr (LB - UCLA) The Vikings could go in a variety of directions. They have quite a few holes to fill, including QB after Christian Ponder failed to pan out for them. I expect them to go defense, choosing between Anthony Barr and DT Aaron Donald. They are also a wild card team to continue the run on QB's if they like Blake Bortles enough.

9. Buffalo Bills - Taylor Lewan (OT - Michigan) The Bills shore up the right side of the OL by drafting Michigan OT Taylor Lewan. The Bills take the clock all the way down as they bounce back and forth between Lewan & Eric Ebron.

10. Detroit Lions - Justin Gilbert (CB - Oklahoma State) Detroit considers Eric Ebron and reaching on Odell Beckham Jr. but they go with the safe pick in Justin Gilbert who enjoyed a nice college career at Oklahoma State both as a return man and as a shut down CB.

11. Tennessee Titans - Kyle Fuller (CB - Virginia Tech) This is the area early to mid-teens where I expect the CB trio of Gilbert, Fuller and Darqueze Dennard to go. The Titans miss out on Gilbert but are able to select Fuller who has been skyrocketing up the boards as of late. The Titans could also be a sleeper team for a QB here.

12. New York Giants - Zack Martin (OT - Notre Dame) The Giants are in both a good spot and a bad spot here. They have to choose between Martin, Eric Ebron and Odell Beckham Jr. as they need to upgrade their offense but decide to address their trenches and take versatile OL Zack Martin.

13. St. Louis Rams - Calvin Pryor (S - Louisville) Pryor overtakes Ha Ha Clinton-Dix as the #1 rated Safety and goes to the Rams with their second 1st round pick of the night. Pryor, who has one of the cooler nicknames of the draft, the Louisville Slugger, helps a defensive end who has plenty of talent at the CB position but very little behind them.

14. Chicago Bears - Aaron Donald (DT - Pittsburgh) The Bears are able to start re-building last years atrocious defense with DT anchor Aaron Donald who can get to the QB, neutralize the run game or take on multiple OL so his teammates can make plays.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers - Darqueze Dennard (CB - Michigan State) The physical press corner from Michigan State lands himself in a defense that he's a perfect fit. Dennard could very well be the first CB taken as he is in that talented trio along with Gilbert & Fuller so don't be surprised if he goes as high as 10 but in this mock, he 'falls' to the Steelers and they should be ecstatic.

16. Dallas Cowboys - Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (S - Alabama) The Cowboys fail to trade up although I think they will try quite hard to do so and end up lucking out as stud Safety from Alabama Ha Ha Clinton-Dix falls to them and helps them secure one of their weakest positions. Would they pass on Clinton-Dix of Manziel fell to them? That could be intriguing!


17. Baltimore Ravens - Odell Beckham Jr. (WR - LSU) It kills me not to go defense with this pick for the Ravens but Beckham Jr., who has been rumored to go in the Top 10, offers too much value for the Ravens to pass up. Eric Ebron who is starting to fall gets an extra hard look here but the Ravens opt for a tough, sure handed WR to start opposite of Torrey Smith.

18. New York Jets - Eric Ebron (TE - North Carolina) The Jets fans should be ecstatic to get Ebron here. The Jets need offensive weapons and most likely have their sights set on a WR but after Odell Beckham Jr. gets taken the pick before, they get Ebron who offers a great security blanket for the awful Geno Smith.

19. Miami Dolphins - CJ Mosley (LB - Alabama) The Dolphins need to upgrade their OL bad but anyone they take here such as JaWuan James or Cyrus Kouandjio would be a reach compared to the safe pick that CJ Mosley offers. The Dolphins shore up their LB corps one year after spending a ton of money on the position and look towards upgrading the OL in Rounds 2 and beyond.

20. Arizona Cardinals - Blake Bortles (QB - Central Florida) The Cardinals know that Carson Palmer won't be around forever so they draft a QB to develop under his tutelage. This situation is very similar to what the Green Bay Packers did when drafting Aaron Rodgers despite having Brett Favre. I don't think this turns out to be as rewarding for the Cardinals but hey, you never know.

21. Green Bay Packers - Ryan Shazier (LB - Ohio State) Shazier is a lightning quick LB who will fit nicely in Green Bay next to Clay Matthews. The Packers could also go TE here to replace JerMichael Finley and give Aaron Rodgers a new shiny toy to play with.

22. Philadelphia Eagles - Brandin Cooks (WR - Oregon State) I expect 5 or 6 WR's to fly off the board to end the first round starting with this pick. The Eagles have a lot of options as they look to replace DeSean Jackson so they take his clone from the PAC-12 where Chip Kelly coaches in Brandin Cooks.

23. Kansas City Chiefs - Jordan Matthews (WR - Vanderbilt) The Chiefs OL lost a lot of talent this off-season but their WR core could use an infusion of talent so they draft big bodied, sure handed Jordan Matthews . Another option at this point would be a similar WR prospect in Allen Robinson. No Kelvin Benjamin you ask? Nope. Not yet.

24. Cincinnati Bengals - Bradley Roby (CB - Ohio State) Roby stays in-state as he dons the stripes of Cincinnati. The Bengals CB's are getting older and Dre Kirkpatrick has been struggling so they stock the cupboard in drafting Roby despite some off his off-season issues.

25. San Diego Chargers - Jason Verrett (CB - TCU) One of my favorite prospects in the draft. I loved watching him play the last two seasons but tried not to get too attached as I knew he wouldn't be considered for the Bills 1st round pick and he'd be gone by their 2nd. The Chargers draft this stud CB to help neutralize the passing attack of Peyton Manning and the Broncos.

26. Cleveland Browns - Joel Bitonio (OT - Nevada) I hate this pick. The Browns have so many picks in this draft and I think are only a few key players away from making a real run in their division. The Browns selected Johnny Manziel with their first pick so naturally you would expect a WR to be drafted next to compliment and grow with him and there are plenty of options but they have a chance to help their OL and get the versatile Bitonio who can play Tackle or Guard. If the Browns go WR, they could pick from Allen Robinson, Marqise Lee, Kelvin Benjamin, Cody Latimer or Davante Adams. This is exactly why I think they go OL and take a WR with their early 2nd round pick.

27. New Orleans Saints - Allen Robinson (WR - Penn State) I was torn between a defensive pass rusher like Dee Ford or DeMarcus Lawrence or Center Marcus Martin but this is an offensive first team and Marquese Colston is always banged up so they go out and grab underrated WR Allen Robinson.

28. Carolina Panthers - Marqise Lee (WR - Southern California) The Panthers could really use an OL but they could also really, really use a WR. I think Marqise Lee will fit perfectly with Cam Newton in Charlotte and give the Panthers a #1 receiver that they sorely lack. The Panthers could go Morgan Moses if they decide to go OL.

29. New England Patriots - Ra'Shede Hagemen (DT - Minnesota) Vince Wilfork is getting old and is coming off an Achilles injury so they draft his replacement here. Hageman is a beast but he doesn't always play to his full potential. I'm sure Belichick can bring out the most in him.

30. San Francisco 49ers - Davante Adams (WR - Fresno State) The 49ers are my top trade up candidate thanks to all of the picks that they have so I doubt they draft in this spot. I will actually bet that they move up for a WR or a CB. If they stay put, they could look to the Defensive Line value that I expect to be sitting there in one of the two Notre Dame prospects Nix III or Tuitt. They need a WR with Boldin getting older so they stay in-state and grab Davante Adams.

31. Denver Broncos - Staley Jean-Baptiste (CB - Nebraska) SJB has shot up the boards and I really have no idea what the Broncos are going to do in this slot. This is a prime spot for a team to trade up to in hopes of grabbing a prospect that they like before Day One ends. The Broncos could go CB, DL or grab a WR to replace Eric Decker.

32. Seattle Seahawks - Morgan Moses (OT - Virginia) One of my favorite prospects, the Seahawks look to strengthen their OL and keep Russell Wilson upright and healthy by selecting Morgan Moses. He is an absolute monster and will fit in perfectly in Seattle.


Wednesday, May 7, 2014

6 Trade Possibilities - Buffalo Bills

I have been seeing the dozens upon dozens of trade rumors involving the Bills and what feels like every other team in the NFL. The Bills have been dubbed 'the team most likely to trade up' after being linked to the Texans at #1, Rams at #2 and Jaguars at #3. They have been said to be enamored with Jadeveon Clowney, Sammy Watkins, Greg Robinson, Jake Matthews, Khalil Mack and Mike Evans. There is a strong chance that none of them drop to the Bills at #9, so of course, if they love these prospects, the only way they can get one of them is by trading up. Who are they going to trade up with and if they do find a partner to tango with, which prospect are they going to draft?

I don't think the Bills trade up to #1 with the Texans but let's go over what the most recent proposed ESPN trade prediction involving the two teams was. This will not be included in my top 6 predictions but let's allow ourselves to be entertained by what it would take to move up and get the much scrutinized Jadeveon Clowney.

Bills Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 1st Overall

Texans Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 9th Overall
2014 2nd Round Pick - 41st Overall
2015 1st Round Pick - TBD
2015 3rd Round Pick - TBD
2016 2nd Round Pick - TBD


Two 1st round picks, two 2nd round picks and one 3rd round pick for a total of five picks. It may be something I would entertain if the Bills were trading up for a QB like Andrew Luck but not for Jadeveon Clowney. Absolutely not. He's a great player and I would be ecstatic if we had the first pick and he was sitting there for the taking but to trade up, unloading all of those picks in the process, just doesn't sit well with me. While Clowney is a great prospect, he is far from a pristine prospect. His work ethic and motor during games has been questioned and isn't known to play through minor injuries. No thanks.

Here are my six predictions which features three trade up scenarios & three trade down scenarios:

1) Buffalo Bills & St. Louis Rams

Bills Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 2nd Overall

Rams Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 9th Overall
2014 2nd Round Pick - 41st Overall
2015 1st Round Pick  - TBD
2015 3rd Round Pick - TBD

What makes this trade happen: The Bills really love Greg Robinson or Sammy Watkins. I don't think the Bills trade up to 2nd overall for Khalil Mack but they have been rumored to be making calls to land one of these prospects and these two teams did business together last year swapping 1st round picks.

Why it works for both sides: Whaley wants to make a splash and get a dynamic WR for EJ or shore up the right side of the OL to protect EJ. All of his eggs are in the EJ Manuel basket and he's willing to do what it takes to make that pick pay off. Rams move down, pick up even more picks and choose the best player that falls to them at #9 as they don't seem to be overly in love with anyone at #2.

My feelings: No thanks. I like Sammy Watkins and Greg Robinson but not at this price.

2) Buffalo Bills & Jacksonville Jaguars

Bills Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 3rd Overall

Jaguars Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 9th Overall
2014 2nd Round Pick - 41st Overall
2015 2nd Round Pick - TBD

What makes this trade happen: One of Watkins & Robinson fall and the Bills feel inclined to move up for them. The price reduces significantly every time you move down one spot this high up in the draft so if the Bills wanted to move up to #2 and the Rams show them down, the value looks even better at #3 having to pay less while getting the same coveted prospect if he remains on the board.

Why it works for both sides: The Jaguars are in shambles. They have a ton of holes. They can use a franchise QB, some OL help and a WR since Justin Blackmon's future is up in the air. They make the trade with the Bills, pick up a couple extra picks to fill holes and grab the best QB that falls to #9 which could very well be the best QB if none come off the board by that point.

My feelings: No thanks. I like Sammy Watkins and Greg Robinson but not at this price either.

3) Buffalo Bills & Oakland Raiders

Bills Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 5th Overall

Raiders Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 9th Overall
2014 2nd Round Pick - 41st Overall

What makes this trade happen: The Bills are targeting Jake Matthews or Mike Evans and feel the need to jump the Falcons & Buccaneers in order to make sure they get the prospect that they covet.

Why it works for both sides: The Raiders are in the same exact boat as the Jaguars. They need a franchise QB and could use a WR. If they like Mike Evans enough, they may stay here and take him but if not, they move back 4 spots and draft the BPA to fill one of their holes.

My feelings: I think this is the most likely and reasonable trade out of my six. I think it's very realistic that the Bills want Matthews or Evans and jump the necessary teams to get the one they want. It isn't a huge jump, benefits both teams and only costs a moderate package to do so.

4) Buffalo Bills & Dallas Cowboys

Bills Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 16th Overall
2014 2nd Round Pick - 47th Overall

Cowboys Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 9th Overall
2014 5th Round Pick - 149th Overall

What makes this trade happen: The Bills lose out on Mike Evans and the top 3 OT's and they desperately try to trade out of the 9th pick. Many of the teams from 10-16 have similar needs so they make calls and finally find a partner.

Why it works for both sides: The Cowboys move up to take DT Aaron Donald or S Ha Ha Clinton Dix before they go through the gauntlet of the Lions, Giants, Bears and Steelers.

My feelings: I think this is the second most realistic trade and my personal wish. I would not mind moving down 7 spots while picking up an extra 2nd round pick, much like last year. I think the Bills could still land Eric Ebron at 16 who they might take at 9 if they are unable to trade out of that spot.

5) Buffalo Bills & Philadelphia Eagles

Bills Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 22nd Overall
2014 2nd Round Pick - 54th Overall
2015 2nd Round Pick - TBD

Eagles Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 9th Overall

What makes this trade happen: The Bills lose out on Mike Evans and the top 3 OT's and they desperately try to trade out of the 9th pick.

Why it works for both sides: The Eagles want a stud WR like Odell Beckham or Brandin Cooks who wouldn't make it to them if they stayed put. Chip Kelly is ready to win now and needs an explosive player to replace DeSean Jackson.

My feelings: A little less likely than the Cowboys trade but under the same theme. I would like it but I also love the idea of trading back and acquiring more picks. I don't like this as much as the Cowboys trade because this puts the Bills into an uncomfortable part of the 1st round in terms of which prospects are available and which ones they need.

6) Buffalo Bills & San Francisco 49ers

Bills Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 30th Overall
2014 2nd Round Pick - 56th Overall
2014 2nd Round Pick - 61st Overall
2014 4th Round Pick - 129th Overall

49ers Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 9th Overall
2014 5th Round Pick - 149th Overall

What makes this trade happen: The 49ers want an explosive WR, much like the Eagles. The Bills want to trade out. They don't plan on moving back this far but the amount of picks and prospects they can bring in is enticing.

Why it works for both sides: The Bills move down and land a RT such as Morgan Moses who can start immediately from Day One. They pick up a plethora of picks in the process. The 49ers feel like they are one player away from getting past the Seahawks, into the Superbowl and finally winning one. Harbaugh feels like he's on the hot seat and creates a sense of urgency to win now, mortgaging some of their MANY picks this year.

My feelings: Yeah this won't happen but look at those picks the Bills get back! The 49ers have plenty of ammo in this draft and really want to trade up. I think the drop for the Bills is too far and too risky but could really do some damage in terms of feeling holes and adding depth. Morgan Moses here to start at RT (look him up, he's solid) + three 2nd round picks to add a TE, LB and either WR or DE? I have only one more night where I can dream of this scenario.

Buffalo Bills - 1st Round Big Board

The Buffalo Bills are picking 9th overall in the 2014 NFL Draft. I will be creating a big board that I think the Bills will/should follow on draft day. When a team makes up a big board, they rank the prospects they like so as the draft unfolds, they can cross off players who have been drafted and keep an updated list on the best possible prospects available. When they're on the clock, the team can look at their big board and decide between the top 2-3 prospects left on their board.

Since the Bills pick 9th, I will make a big board of my top ten prospects. This ensures that when the Bills are on the clock, they will be guaranteed to take one of these prospects. I don't believe the Bills are in the market for a QB so I will omit the top QB prospects from my list. I will include only prospects at positions that the Bills will be in the market for in the first round. The best case scenario for Buffalo will be an early run on QB's such as Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel and possibly even Derek Carr which will allow other prospects to fall and give the Bills better options when it is their time to select a player.

1. Jadeveon Clowney (DE) South Carolina - If the Bills had their pick of the prospects, I expect #1 on their big board to be Jadeveon Clowney. Clowney is 6'5 and 266 of pure muscle. He ran a 4.45 at the combine which is just unreal. He is said to be a once in a generation prospect but also gets criticized for taking plays off which is a big red flag for a potential 1st overall pick. Clowney won't drop to the Bills at 9th as I fully expect him to be taken 1st overall. If the Bills were to acquire Clowney, they would have to trade up with the Texans and the price it would cost would be way too much in my opinion. While I would love for him to be paired up with Mario Williams at the DE position, I'll gladly watch him go to the Texans and see how his motor holds up after he's been paid the big bucks.

2. Sammy Watkins (WR) Clemson - While I have Clowney as my clear cut #1 prospect, I struggled in slotting my next three prospects between Sammy Watkins, Greg Robinson and Khalil Mack. I gave Watkins the nod because of all of the chatter I hear regarding the Bills and how badly they want to move up for Watkins. I personally would put Greg Robinson at #2 but I don't see the Bills trading up for him because the OT position is deep with quality candidates who may fall to #9 so Watkins finds himself at #2. Watkins plays much bigger than his size but he's still 6'1 which is similar to what the Bills already have and if I'm drafting a WR, I'm drafting a big WR for EJ Manuel. No matter how big you play, 6'1 is still 6'1. Watkins won't fall to the Bills and I don't want to trade up to anything higher than #5 to draft him which is possible if Clowney, Robinson, Mack and Manziel (or another QB) go in the top 4. I anticipate several teams calling the Raiders for that pick to select Watkins with the Bills being one of them. Question is, do the Raiders stay put and draft Watkins themselves or do they trade out? Would be interesting to see how they handle that scenario.

3. Greg Robinson (OT) Auburn - Greg Robinson is an absolute beast. Robinson is 6'5 and 332 and an absolute mauler in the run game. Robinson led a an insane rushing attack behind QB Nick Marshall and RB Tre Mason at Auburn en route to their National Championship appearance. Robinson excels in the run game moreso than the passing game but he has the skills to be a well-rounded LT for 10-12 years. For all of the trade up talk, I haven't once heard the Bills been attached to Greg Robinson. Having him at RT would be a luxury, or having Cordy Glenn at RT after Greg Robinson takes over the LT position. With that being said. I expect Greg Robinson to be long gone by the time the Bills pick at #9. My projection is #2 to the St. Louis Rams.

4. Khalil Mack (LB) Buffalo - It's great to see a University of Buffalo product ranked so highly. While he's #4 on my big board, he's found himself atop many analysts big boards and mock drafts this off-season. Mack is versatile, has a high motor and makes plays consistently. Mack has good size for the position and is thick from top to bottom. He uses this body to win one-on-one battles and when engaged, doesn't stay engaged long. He has a quick burst and wins with hands, shedding blockers to get to the ball carrier. If you are unfamiliar with Mack, just watch what he did against Ohio State last year. Not only did he fit in against a superior opponent, he stood out. Mack is a safe prospect who plays the game the right way, with a relentless, high motor who will be taking down opposing QB's for years to come. Some say Mack could go #1 to the Texans because he fits their defense better than Clowney. I don't see him getting past the Jaguars at #3. The Browns have a few different needs at QB, OT and WR so if he falls to them, I would be interested to see if new head coach Mike Pettine gives himself a shiny new toy for his defense.

5. Jake Matthews (OT) Texas A&M - If Jake Matthews is on the board at #9, the Bills should hand their envelope to Marquise Goodwin and have him sprint up to the podium to select the Texas A&M prospect. Matthews is a guy that may or may not be there at #9 but could also be a trade up candidate for the Bills if they want to move ahead of the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons really need an OT and with Greg Robinson expected to be gone, Jake Matthews looks like the next guy on the list. The Bills could trade up to #5 and poach Matthews from the Falcons or they could stay put and cross their fingers something weird happens and Matthews slides past Atlanta and into the Bills laps at #9. Could Atlanta prefer Taylor Lewan over Matthews? Not likely but also not impossible.

6. Mike Evans (WR) Texas A&M - I criticized Sammy Watkins a bit earlier for his lack of size. Mike Evans will receive no such criticism from me. Evans is my ideal WR target in this draft. The Bills have plenty of WR options for EJ Manuel but they don't have any like Mike Evans. Evans is 6'5, 231 lbs. with 4.46 speed. He can win with his straight line speed or with his physicality going across the middle or high pointing a jump ball. He's everything you want in your #1 WR in the mold of Brandon Marshall and Vincent Jackson. Speaking of Vincent Jackson, that's who Evans might find himself playing across from in the fall. After Tampa Bay shipped Mike Williams to the Bills, it created a need at WR. The Buccaneers may look to create a Brandon Marshall/Alshon Jeffrey type receiving tandem by drafting Mike Evans at #7, two spots ahead of the Bills. What may help Evans fall to the Bills is if Johnny Manziel falls to the Buccaneers at #7 and they pull the trigger on him because from the sounds of it, the new regime are not fans of last years second-half starter Mike Glennon. Evans is the first prospect on this list with a realistic possibility of falling to the Bills and if that were to happen, I would welcome him to Buffalo with open arms.

7. Taylor Lewan (OT) Michigan - Now we get into the realistic options. The Bills should be able to land one of the top three OT's and at this point, it looks like Lewan will last longer than Matthews. Lewan has some character issues but he also has a nasty streak that you look for in a lineman. He is big, fast and physical. He can get out in the screen game which the Bills should utilize more and can be a mauler in the run game as well. You just have to make sure he avoids suspensions and penalties. If the 6 prospects on this list are gone ahead of him, I will be fine with taking Lewan at #9 even if Ebron is still on the board.

8. Eric Ebron (TE) North Carolina - While I said I would take Lewan over Ebron, that doesn't mean I would be unhappy if the Bills took Ebron. Ebron looks to be on the board for the Bills at #9 and if there isn't a run on QB's then he may be the best optional available. He was brought in for a pre-draft visit and would bring a new dynamic to the offense, making him a very good fall-back option if prospects 1-7 are off the board. Ebron's hands can be shaky at times and doesn't have much blocking experience but he's the new aged TE that will immediately become Manuel's best friend.

9. CJ Mosley (LB) Alabama - Prospects 9-10 on this list, starting with CJ Mosley puts my happiness with our first round pick into a different tier. I like CJ Mosley and think he would be great for our defense but in the first round at ninth overall, I think we have bigger needs to address. Mosley does everything good and some things great from the LB position and has been well coached in college so he should be able to have an immediate impact however I think he'll have that type of impact with a team that is not the Buffalo Bills being taken somewhere in the teens.

10. Zack Martin (OT) Notre Dame - I added Martin on this list just to round a top ten list. I don't want Zack Martin. I do like his versatility but I don't want to take the 4th ranked player at his position just 9 picks into the draft no matter how deep the position is or how big your need is. Martin is said to have small arms which makes a move to the inside of the offensive line more likely however many people thinks he can stick at RT. I don't want to deal with those type of question marks. Having him become an 'excellent guard' is not a consolation I want to deal with at ninth overall. I'd rather splurge on CJ Mosley and hope a RT prospect falls to us in the 2nd round.

Tuesday, May 6, 2014

Mock Draft 2.0 - Buffalo Bills

This is the 2nd installment in my 3 piece Mock Draft series. The first mock draft was posted last week and can be found on the website. My 3rd and final mock will be posted Thursday before the draft and will be a little different from the first two. Thursday's final mock draft will have my full first round featuring all 32 NFL teams' picks plus my projected Bills picks for Rounds 1-7 much like the first two mock drafts I have posted.

As you know from my previous mock, I use www.fanspeak.com and control the Buffalo Bills as the computer drafts for the other 31 teams based on their team needs and the players available. For the second mock draft, things shook out very similar to the first one and for the sake of personal interest, I wanted to take a different route this time around. With Taylor Lewan on the board, who I think will be a great asset to the team, filling a very big need, I passed on him in the second mock and took someone that many people have expressed interest in if none of the big 3 OT's fell to us at 9th overall. Keep reading to find out who I selected for the Bills:

Round 1 - 9th Overall

Just Missed Out On:
  • Jake Matthews (OT) - I would snatch Jake Matthews up in a second if he fell to the Bills. I think he is tactical, sound and one of the safest picks in this years draft.
  • Sammy Watkins (WR) & Mike Evans (WR) - I think Watkins is long gone in real life but Mike Evans has an off chance of falling to the Bills. If he does, the Bills should at least entertain the idea of selecting him.
Who I Considered:
  • Taylor Lewan (OT) - I took Taylor Lewan in my first mock draft and if this scenario presented itself in real life, I would want the Bills to take him as I think RT is the biggest need within the organization right now. I don't think Lewan is that far behind Jake Matthews in terms of talent and I love Lewan's nasty streak. For the sake of this mock though, I passed on Lewan to see how their draft might unfold if they selected a different position, especially if the top 3 OT's are gone which is both a scary thought and a realistic possibility come this Thursday.
Who I Chose:
  • Eric Ebron (TE) - If the two WR's (Watkins and Evans) and the three OT's (Robinson, Matthews and Lewan) are gone, then I'm not quite sure what the Bills will do at 9. The Bills could "reach" and select Notre Dame, G/T address a need but selecting the 4th rated player at a position just 9 picks into the draft isn't the easiest pill to swallow as a fan. In this scenario, you hope the Bills could find a partner to trade back but for the sake of this mock, they stay put and take Eric Ebron from UNC. Ebron isn't much a blocker and often lines up as a WR so there are some question marks, especially when you factor in that he has the highest drop rate among the top 5 rated TE's in this draft. All that aside, Ebron is a playmaker who will help bring a new dynamic to the offense. He is athletic, quick and is the prototypical new aged TE. Ebron would immediately become Manuel's best friend on the field.

Round 2 - 41st Overall

Just Missed Out On:
  • Dee Ford (DE) & DeMarcus Lawrence (DE/ OLB) - The Bills made the switch from 3-4 to 4-3 and while they have Mario Williams & Jerry Hughes, they don't have much behind them. Dee Ford was by far Auburn's best defensive player and could wreak havoc in an offense across from Mario Williams however he heads to Atlanta just a couple picks prior. DeMarcus Lawrence from Boise State has been picking up a ton of steam as of late as a 4-3 DE or a 3-4 OLB.
  • Kyle Fuller (CB/S) -  The Bills brought in Kyle Fuller from Virginia Tech a few separate time this off-season. Fuller is versatile and can play the CB position or S. The Bills seem to be set at CB after signing Corey Graham in the off-season but he may be a candidate to start at S across from Aaron Williams which would re-create a need at CB. Fuller's versatility could go a long way in bringing some depth to both of these positions.
Who I Considered:
  • Joel Bitonio (OT) - Joel Bitonio from Nevada can come in and play RT but I have my eyes locked in on someone else. With former 2nd round targets Jace Amaro & Austin Sefarian-Jenkins no longer a need with the selection of Eric Ebron, I am able to entertain the idea of selecting a different position based on value. I pass on Bitonio and hope I can find a RT in the 3rd round.
Who I Chose:
  • Kyle Van Noy (LB) - I considered Kyle Van Noy, from BYU, in my first mock draft with this pick but decided to select Jace Amaro after having selected Taylor Lewan in the first round. While I should really have taken Bitonio to shore up the right side of the line, I just can't pass up on the value of Kyle Van Noy here. Van Noy can play MLB, OLB and DE. He is versatile and the epitome of a playmaker. He is solid against the run, in coverage and can create turnovers. He reminds me of Kiko Alonso and if you can get another Kiko Alonso, you get another Kiko Alonso. The switch from 3-4 to 4-3 limits the needs for LB's and while they added Brandon Spikes & Keith Rivers, Spikes is only here on a one year deal and Van Noy is better than Keith Rivers. As previously states, Van Noy can come in and play DE. He is a jack-of-all trades and a future pro-bowler. Can you tell I have a man crush on him? If the Bills can add Ebron & Van Noy in the first two rounds, they improved both sides of the ball and they will look even better if they can somehow land a suitable RT.

Round 3 - 73rd Overall

Just Missed Out On:
  • Cameron Fleming (OT) - Fleming has manned the Tackle position at Stanford for the last few years and has done an admirable job leading one of the best rushing attacks in the country. I was really hoping Fleming would fall to the Bills with this pick, shoring up the RT position while making my first two picks look even better for passing on this position and drafting elsewhere.
Who I Considered:
  • Allen Robinson (WR) - Robinson is a big, physical WR who goes up at the balls highest point to make the catch. He bailed out freshman QB Christian Hackenberg several times this past season on jump balls and inaccurate back shoulder throws. Robinson is expected to go much higher in real life but if any team can get him in the 3rd round, they got themselves a steal.
Who I Chose:
  • Cyrus Kouandjio (OT) - And just like that, I land the Bills RT in the 3rd round with great value. Kounadjio is said to have a balky knee but it's smoke and mirrors season. Many teams said he checked out fine. He got absolutely annihilated against Oklahoma but was solid the rest of the year. He will move from LT to RT, battling with Chris Hairston & Erik Pears for the starting position that I think he ultimately wins.

Round 4 - 109th Overall

Just Missed Out On:
  • Pierre Desir (CB) - Pierre Desir from D-II Lindenwood is a sleeper CB prospect in this draft. I haven't watched much film on him other than a highlight video but he seems very fluid with good closing speed but then again, that was against much inferior competition compared to what his draft-mates went up against every week.
Who I Considered:
  • Donte Moncrief (WR) - There is no way Donte Moncrief is there when the Bills pick in the 4th round so I passed on him to continue with a sense of realism. If he's there in real life, I sprint up to the podium and draft him. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmOfe2uGgPU
  • Lache Seastrunk (RB) - The Bills don't need a RB this year but they will next year. The Bills also seem to really want to be proactive in getting one this year with how many RB's they've brought in for pre-draft visits. If they do take one in the middle rounds, my favorite would be Lache Seastrunk. While I would love him here, I personally think the Bills can either wait on one or get one next year.
Who I Chose:
  • Jackson Jeffcoat (DE) - Jackson Jeffcoat was a former top prospect with great bloodlines. His father Jim played 15 years in the NFL, with a few of those years as a Buffalo Bill from 95-97. Jackson has good size and oozes potential however his production hasn't always matched. He overcame some injuries through his college career so hopefully a fresh slate and a clean bill of health will allow him to reach his potential as depth behind Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes.

Round 5 - 149th Overall

Just Missed Out On:
  • No Notable Prospects
Who I Considered:
  • Phillip Gaines (CB) - A fast CB prospect from Rice. Gaines had a knack for the ball in the pass happy Conference USA. He always seemed to get his hand on a pass intended for the WR he was covering. Said to be a fringe tackler, it's something he would have to work on as he will most likely carve out a role on special teams before getting a look as a contributing CB. I'm intrigued with his potential upside.
  • James Hurst (T/G) - Hurst from UNC broke his leg late in the season but offers exceptional value at this point in the season. I'm confident he can play RT and would be an exceptional G in the NFL. He is an ideal 6th OL who can play 3-4 of the 5 positions across the line. I see better value at another position that will force me to pass on Hurst at this point however some team will get great value when they draft him in Round 5 or beyond.
Who I Chose:
  • Antone Exum (CB) - I feel like Antone Exum has been at Virginia Tech for 10 years. I remember watching him years ago being impressed with him on the outside of Frank Beamer's defense. He is a ball hawk and can lay down the boom. He can play CB or S which I love. That versatility combined with that of Corey Graham's who can play both positions as well will put the Bills in the best position to mix and match, play the numbers game, have insurance in case of injuries and be versatile in a league where versatility and hybrids keep opponents on edge. Exum can come in and contribute on special teams helping solidify the Buffalo Bills Achilles of last year. Exum can play and he luckily falls into the Bills laps thanks to some senior season injuries.

Round 6th - 185th overall

The Bill 6th round, 185th overall pick was traded to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Mike Williams (WR) so you can include him as part of your draft class and if I may give my opinion, that's pretty good value. You get an established WR with some size at a point in the draft where the Bills are more known for selecting projects and eventual non-contributors to their team. Just look at the list of their last 10 6th rounders! Could this have been different? Could they have found the next diamond in the rough? Yes, they could have but it's far from a sure thing. I'll take Mike Williams with the 185th overall pick any day of the week, including this particular Saturday where this pick will be used, by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Round 7 - 223rd Overall

Just Missed Out On:
  • Kevin Norwood (WR) - Kevin Norwood enjoyed a nice season at Alabama and would offer good value in the 7th round. I think he'll go higher than the 7th round in real life in a deep class where WR's are expected to fly off the boards in the pass happy NFL.
Who I Considered:
  • Aaron Colvin (CB)  - A very good college player who tore his knee and has watched his draft stock plummet since. Some team is going to get a very good player who will come back in 2015 with a chip on his shoulder. Have the Bills not drafted Antone Exum in the 5th round in this mock, I would take a chance on Aaron Colvin in a second.
Who I Chose:
  • Isaiah Crowell (RB) - Former top prospect and productive player for the Georgia Bulldogs of the SEC, Crowell fell out of favor and transferred to Alabama State where he stayed out of trouble for the most part. The Bills have wanted to upgrade the RB like I've said numerous times in this mock but haven't done so. 7th rounders are far from sure things so the Bills take a flier on a troubled but talented RB in Crowell.

2014 Draft Results
1. Eric Ebron - TE
2. Kyle Van Noy - LB
3. Cyrus Kouandjio - OT
4. Jackson Jeffcoat - DE
5. Antone Exum - CB/S
6. Pick traded to TB for Mike Williams - WR
7. Isaiah Crowell - RB

Strengths: The Bills get an instant offensive contributor in Eric Ebron and also shore up the right side of the OL with the addition of Cyrus Kouandjio in the third round. The Bills add versatility on defense with the additions of Kyle Van Noy, LB in the 2nd round and Antone Exum, CB/S in the 5th round. Jackson Jeffcoat has some question marks but offers depth at the DE position where there isn't much. I really like this draft and think it makes the Bills much better on both sides of the ball. Very balanced with high upside prospects.

Weaknesses: This draft was risky. The Bills pass on Lewan in the first to take Ebron and Bitonio in the second to take Van Noy. Had the Bills not landed Kouandjio in the third, they would have looked like fools. With RT being the Bills biggest need, I wouldn't feel comfortable to waiting until the third round to improve the position, especially if they swung and miss. They thankfully didn't but like I said the draft strategy of going TE in the first and selecting a LB in the second, a position where they are currently stable at, was a risk. Jeffcoat hasn't lived up to his potential and Exum is coming off an injury riddled season. Throw in Crowell's character concerns, the back half of their draft offers more risk than the potential reward it could reap.



Sunday, May 4, 2014

2013 Buffalo Bills NFL Re-Draft

With the 2014 NFL Draft just days away, I wanted to revisit last years draft and using our hindsight, see what would have been the most ideal, beneficial and optimal draft for the Buffalo Bills. I will use the format they used last year which included the 1st round trade back in which they acquires an additional 2nd round pick.

1st Round - 16th Overall

Original Pick: EJ Manuel - QB - Florida State

Re-Draft Pick: Eric Reid - S - LSU

I am not an EJ Manuel fan. I like him but don't love him. I want him to be great and warrant this pick but I just don't think he will. This QB class was awful so I decided to go with another position as opposed to another player at this position. I chose Eric Reid, Safety from LSU. Reid would play one year behind Jairus Byrd and Aaron Williams and put the Bills in a position where they could let Jairus Byrd inevitably walk without the drama.

2nd Round - 41st Overall

Original Pick: Robert Woods - WR - USC

Re-Draft Pick: Larry Warford - OG - Kentucky

Robert Woods was a fine player last year. He didn't do anything that blew me away. Could it have been the QB play or just some rookie struggles? Who knows. I expect Woods to get better as the years go on but I see an opportunity to shore up a much bigger position of need after watching the Bills from last year and that is the Offensive Line, specifically the Guard position. The LG position was in shambles all year between Colin Brown & Doug Legursky. Larry Warford would offer stability between Cordy Glenn and Eric Wood and make the Bills forget about the departure of Andy Levitre. Warford did not give up a sack the entire year and was voted Pro Football Focus' Rookie of the Year.

2nd Round - 46th Overall

Original Pick: Kiko Alonso - LB - Oregon

Re-Draft Pick: Kiko Alonso - LB - Oregon

If it's not broke, don't fix it. Kiko Alonso made the Bills look like geniuses as he finished 2nd in Rookie of the Year voting among defensive players. Not much to say other than I'm thankful he's a Bill in real life and remains one in this re-draft mock. Alonso is a player that the Bills could have taken with their 1st round pick and no one would have battled an eye lash the second time around because the production would warrant the pick. Great value for the Bills here.

3rd Round - 78th Overall

Original Pick: Marquise Goodwin - WR - Texas

Re-Draft Pick: Jordan Reed - TE - Florida

I like Marquise Goodwin and you can't teach speed, which he has plenty of but so does Jordan Reed at a position where you'll find less of it. Jordan Reed had a great year for the Washington Redskins as the new-aged prototypical TE, fast and athletic. Reed had some injury issues but he would have been the best player at the position on the Bills roster last year and for many years to come.

4th Round - 105th Overall

Original Pick: Duke Williams - S - Nevada

Re-Draft Pick: Ryan Nassib - QB - Syracuse

The Bills went with Eric Reid early in the draft so there's no need for Duke Williams at this spot. With the Bills taking Eric Reid, they passed on EJ Manuel so they still have a need at QB. I chose Ryan Nassib based on value. He was talked about as a 1st round pick but ultimately fell and fell hard, right on his face. His college head coach, Doug Marrone, passed on him 5 times in real life so why take him here? Value. The Bills needed a QB but in this draft, they didn't take one up until this point just to take one. At this point, the Bills pull the trigger and hope the camaraderie with his former head coach leads to some success in Buffalo. At this point the Bills had a 'healthy' Kevin Kolb so they weren't completely desperate for someone to come in right away as whoever they drafted was set to battle Kolb and earn the spot. Wow the QB position has been haunting us for years.

5th Round - 143rd Overall

Original Pick: Jonathan Meeks - S - Clemson

Re-Draft Pick: Kenny Stills - WR - Oklahoma

The Bills passed on Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin in this draft despite drafting them both in real life so they'll splurge on the position for the first time, taking a sure handed Kenny Stills who had a successful rookie year in New Orleans and showed how bright his future could be, moreso in that offense with a capable QB but Stills caught the balls threw his way and made plays when he was asked.

6th Round - 177th Overall

Original Pick: Dustin Hopkins - K - Florida State

Re-Draft Pick: DeVonte Holloman - LB - South Carolina

Dustin Hopkins was a wasted pick here. He wasn't a bust because he got hurt and the Bills struck gold with FA signing Dan Carpenter so Hopkins at this point is not necessary. Instead, they get a stud S turned LB in DeVonte Holloman who is all about creating turnovers, making plays and my goodness, laying down the boom. He was an unknown at this point as he was considered a tweener but proved the critics wrong and performed admirably for the Dallas Cowboys.

7th Round - 222nd Overall

Original Pick: Chris Gragg - TE - Arkansas

Re-Draft Pick: Jawan Jamison - RB - Rutgers

The Bills needed a TE so they drafted Chris Gragg late who oozes athleticism but not much else. Instead, they drafted Jordan Reed in the re-draft so they don't have a need for Gragg at this point. Instead, the Bills look to get some RB depth by taking Rutgers' Jawan Jamison who was taken by the Washington Redskins. Buffalo Bills 3rd RB on the depth chart, Tashard Choice was cut mid-season and the Bills have been bringing in several RB's this off-season so being proactive and adding depth to the position seems like a good investment at this point.


 Which draft do you like better?

2013 Real Draft

1. EJ Manuel - QB
2. Robert Woods - WR
2. Kiko Alonso - LB
3. Marquise Goodwin - WR
4. Duke Williams - S
5. Jonathan Meeks - S
6. Dustin Hopkins - K
7. Chris Gragg - TE

2013 Re-Draft

1. Eric Reid - S
2. Larry Warford - OG
2. Kiko Alonso - LB
3. Jordan Reed - TE
4. Ryan Nassib - QB
5. Kenny Stills - WR
6. DeVonte Holloman - LB
7. Jawan Jamison - RB



Friday, May 2, 2014

Big Board of Favorite Prospects & Projected Draft Rounds

The Buffalo Bills have 6 draft picks in the upcoming 2014 NFL Draft. They have one pick in Rounds 1-5 & one in Round 7. The Bills traded their 6th round pick to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for WR - Mike Williams. I wanted to put together a master list of prospects that I personally like in their respective projected rounds that I hope the Bills will look to draft. The list omits many prospects. The reason I left off prospects is because with only 6 draft picks and 14 positions, excluding special teams, some positions are of greater need than others so they were given less attention. For instance, I don't think the QB, DT or C position will be targeted so I added a minimal amount of prospects, if any at all.

Some positions have more prospects than others for two reasons. One reason is that the position may be a greater need for the Buffalo Bills heading into the draft (OT)  and another reason is that the position is deep with quality prospects (CB).

I expect players like Jadeveon Clowney & Khalil Mack to be off the board by the time the Bills pick at 9th so they weren't added despite the fact that I would accept them with open arms if they fell into our lap. I left Sammy Watkins on the list because if they do trade up, I believe he'll be the target. I also left off many prospects 1st round prospects that I expect to be drafted after the Bills 1st round pick and before their 2nd round pick. I just felt no need to add them, despite liking them as prospects, if they wouldn't be realistic targets such as some of the CB's in the 1st round. While I like them, the Bills aren't going CB in the 1st and they'll be gone by the 2nd so they were left off.


Quarterbacks

Bills Pre-Draft Visitors: None

Will the Bills spend 1 of their 6 picks on this position: No

Breakdown: I don't think the Bills will spend a draft pick on this position. They seem happy with EJ Manuel and Thad Lewis at 1 & 2 on the depth chart. If they do want to spend a 7th round pick on a QB and San Jose State QB David Fales is available, I wouldn't mind bringing him into camp to supplant Jeff Tuel for clipboard holding duties. One polarizing prospect that fans may want to take a chance on late is Logan Thomas and I say, absolutely not.

Running Backs

Bills Pre-Draft Visitors: Terrance Cobb, Jeremy Hill, Carlos Hyde, Jerick McKinnon, Lache Seastrunk, Terrance West.

Will the Bills spend 1 of their 6 picks on this position: Possibly

Breakdown: I think the Bills have bigger needs than the RB position but they may want to draft a RB to take over if CJ Spiller decides to walk when he becomes a FA. I think RB's are dime-a-dozen if you are seeking a starter, so spending a backup on a 3rd stringer at the position just doesn't make sense to me. The Bills used 6 of their 30 pre-draft visits on RB's so they are clearly interested in strengthening the position. If one of the prospects they like happens to fall to them and they feel the value is too good to pass up, you may see them pull the trigger.

Wide Receivers

Bills Pre-Draft Visitors: Odell Beckham Jr, Mike Evans, Cody Latimer, Sammy Watkins

Will the Bills spend 1 of their 6 picks on this position: Possibly

Breakdown: The Bills brought in a few WR prospects. I don't think it's a huge need but the class is deep and there is some serious talent at the position. If the Bills want Watkins, they'll have to trade up. If they stay put at #9, Mike Evans is a serious candidate to become a Buffalo Bill. I added a minimal amount of WR prospects on to my list despite the class being deep. I think if the Bills do get a WR, I think he's going to be a big boy. Outside of Watkins, all of the WR's on my list are 6'3 or taller. Moncrief, Robinson and Latimer are quality prospects in Rounds 2-3 but after that, the prospects remaining would be guys I just don't see the Bills adding due to them already having similar prospects currently on the roster.

Tight Ends

Bills Pre-Draft Visitors: Eric Ebron, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, Troy Niklas

Will the Bills spend 1 of their 6 picks on this position: Possibly

Breakdown: Eric Ebron is a serious candidate to be taken at 9th overall by the Bills. If a quality RT falls to them in the 1st, they have a trio of TE's that could be available in the 2nd round in Amaro, Sefarian-Jenkins and Niklas that they could add. These are all quality prospects. If Round 3 rolls around and the Bills have missed out on these prospects, I don't see them drafting a TE at all. While they have a need, they aren't exactly desperate. They have 3-4 current TE's that can get them through a season but none currently that would keep them from adding one of the top 3-4 prospects in the first 2 rounds. I love Jace Amaro & ASF but I think the Bills may entertain Troy Niklas in the 2nd and would definitely take him in the 3rd if he happens to fall.

Offensive Tackles

Bills Pre-Draft Visitors: Jake Matthews, Zack Martin, Cyrus Kouandjio, Charles Siddoway, Lauren Duvernay-Tardif.

Will the Bills spend 1 of their 6 picks on this position: Yes

Breakdown: The Bills need a RT pretty bad. I actually think that they take a OT with their 1st round pick. There is a trio of OT's in Greg Robinson, Jake Matthews and Taylor Lewan that are instant starters and potential future pro-bowlers. This is a stacked position at the top and the prospects have a lot more boom than they do bust attached to their short term and long term potential. If the Bills pass on this position, there are a couple solid prospects in Morgan Moses and JaWuan James that could fall to them in the 2nd ala Cordy Glenn a few years ago. I just don't see the Bills coming out of this draft without a prospect at the very least, pushing Erik Pears for playing time. Keep an eye on James Hurst an Cornelius Lucas, a couple of prospects who fell due to injury, not a lack of talent. Give me Jake Matthews in the 1st if he's there.

Offensive Guards

Bills Pre-Draft Visitors: None

Will the Bills spend 1 of their 6 picks on this position: No

Breakdown: I like the depth at this position, especially in the 2nd round but it's not a position of need. It is by no means a position they are settled in at but there's a higher chance that the Bills can find someone internally, through FA or even UDFA that can come in and secure the depth at this position. There are some late round fliers in Jon Halapio and John Urschel to keep an eye on. Halapio is an extremely nasty prospect and Urschell is an extremely intelligent prospect.

Centers

Bills Pre-Draft Visitors: Marcus Martin

Will the Bills spend 1 of their 6 picks on this position: No

Breakdown: The Bills brought in Marcus Martin. I'm not sure why but I don't see the Bills using one of their valuable six draft picks on this position that's already manned by Eric Wood who's coming off a healthy season.


Defensive Ends

Bills Pre-Draft Visitors: Scott Crichton

Will the Bills spend 1 of their 6 picks on this position: Possibly

Breakdown: The Bills have capable starters in Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes who were very successful in the 3-4 last year. The switch to the 4-3 will raise some questions as the depth is fairly thin behind the starters. Manny Lawson will be in the mix although he fits better into the 3-4 and Jairus Wynn, a career journeyman, was signed but the Bills may look to add depth to the position that has been the key to take down Tom Brady and the Patriots in the past; see the New York Giants. I don't think the need is high enough to spend a 2nd round pick on the position and target guys like DeMarcus Lawrence from Boise State or Scott Crichton from Oregon State but guys like Kareem Martin (UNC) & Jackson Jeffcoat (Texas) in the 3rd may be strong possibilities.

Defensive Tackles

Bills Pre-Draft Visitors: None

Will the Bills spend 1 of their 6 picks on this position: No

Breakdown: I added some value picks on my chart but I don't see the Bills using one of their six draft picks on one of their stronger positions. If the Bills really felt like they needed depth, they would have retained Alex Carrington since he signed for an extremely reason contract. The Bills seem to really like Stefan Charles who is backing up Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus. I don't see the position garnering any interest in this years draft.

Outside Linebackers

Bills Pre-Draft Visitors: CJ Mosley (OLB/ILB), Ryan Shazier

Will the Bills spend 1 of their 6 picks on this position: Possibly

Breakdown: The Bills shook up the LB position this off-season. Kiko Alonso was moved from ILB to OLB, Keith Rivers was signed to play one OLB position and Brandon Spikes was signed to play the MLB position. Last years OLB's Jerry Hughes and Manny Lawson were moved to DE so there is some uncertainty at the overall depth at this position. The Bills have Rivers & Alonso starting at LB so they seem to be set. Mosley, a 1st round prospect, and Shazier, a late 1st to early 2nd round prospect, were brought in for visits but I just don't see this position being 'upgraded' in the first two rounds. Mosley is a great prospect and a versatile one so if the Bills have the luxury of moving back in the 1st, he may be a prime target as he can play both LB spots. A personal man crush of mine is Kyle Van Noy from BYU. That guy can play! Whoever gets him will get a 10 year starter in the NFL and future pro-bowler, mark it down.


Inside Linebackers

Bills Pre-Draft Visitors: CJ Mosley (OLB/ILB), Preston Brown

Will the Bills spend 1 of their 6 picks on this position: Possibly

Breakdown: The Bills shook up the LB position this off-season. Kiko Alonso was moved from ILB to OLB, Keith Rivers was signed to play one OLB position and Brandon Spikes was signed to play the MLB position. This isn't much of a need. The Bills have a clear starter at MLB and the ability to plug in Alonso if Spikes were to go down but Spikes is only on a one year deal and the Bills may want to focus on keeping Alonso on the outside so drafting Spikes' understudy and future starter at the position may be a possibility if the Bills find value in a prospect that falls into their lap. For me, keep an eye on Shayne Skov who may fall due to speed concerns and prospects Lamin Barrow from LSU and Yawin Smallwood from Connecticut.

Cornerbacks

Bills Pre-Draft Visitors: Walt Aikens, Bashaud Breeland, Ross Cockrell, Kyle Fuller, Phillip Gaines, Bradley Roby

Will the Bills spend 1 of their 6 picks on this position: Yes

Breakdown: You can never have too many CB's. When you rely on guys like Justin Rogers, you're going to have a bad time. You don't want to rely on guys like Justin Rogers! The Bills seemed set at the position with the solid year from Leodis McKelvin, the healthy second half from Stephon Gilmore, the emergence of UDFA stud Nickell Robey and the signing of local boy Corey Graham. Graham may move to S so there may be a depth need at CB which wouldn't be a bad idea with how stacked this class is at the CB position and how players of this position tend to be solid special teams contributors. Other than Fuller and Roby, the Bills brought in some mid-round prospects that I see them pulling the trigger on in the 4th-5h rounds. I like Phillip Gaines and any of the three Florida CB's, especially Loucheiz Purifoy who is a special teams maven. Some sleepers late are Aaron Colvin who you can stash on IR this year and reap the rewards in 2015 and Bene Benwikere who impressed me at San Jose State.

Safeties

Bills Pre-Draft Visitors: None

Will the Bills spend 1 of their 6 picks on this position: Possibly

Breakdown: The Bills lost Jairus Byrd in Free Agency to the New Orleans Saints yet don't have as big of a hole at the position as you would think. They plan on moving Aaron Williams into the FS spot and have a player-by-committee manning the SS position if no one fails to win it outright. They have some viable candidates in Da'Norris Searcy and Duke Williams. Both come with their question marks but you throw in the possibility of a CB to S switch that worked out quite nicely for Aaron Williams with newly signed Corey Graham and the Bills may be fine at the backend on defense after all. There are definitely some intriguing S prospects such as Kenny Ladler, Craig Loston and Ahmad Dixon who could be drafted and ultimately keep Corey Graham at the all-of-a-sudden deep CB position. This is definitely a position to keep an eye on next week.


Monday, April 28, 2014

Mock Draft 1.0 - Buffalo Bills

I will be posting 3 separate Mock Drafts prior to the 2014 NFL Draft which will take place on Thursday, May 8th. This posting will be the first of three. I will post another one next Monday (5/2) and my final one on Thursday, the day of the draft (5/8).

Instead of posting a Mock Draft off of who I want or who I think will be there, etc. I found this really cool site that I've been utilizing. The site is www.fanspeak.com and it auto-drafts for all of the teams based on three different computerized rankings but gives you the opportunity to choose one team and draft for them based on who is available at the time of their pick. The rankings are updated at the beginning of every week so they stay in line with what is happening in real life and while some might complain with a player or two getting drafted higher than expected, I think it adds to the overall experience that we see every year with a team reaching on a lower rated player or a higher rated player falling for whatever reason.

I, of course, will choose the Buffalo Bills and draft for them based on who I would take with a brief synopsis on who I was considering at the time and why I ultimately chose the player that I did. I will post screenshots of who was taken prior and who was on the board so you can follow along.

Round 1 - 9th Overall

Just Missed Out On:
  • Jake Matthews (OT) - I wanted Jake Matthews, OT from Texas A&M, for the last month or so. I initially fell in love with Greg Robinson but realized early on, he won't make it to 9th overall so I "settled" on wanting Jake Matthews but at this point in time, I don't think he lasts until the Bills are on the clock either and that holds true in this mock.
  • Sammy Watkins (WR) & Mike Evans (WR) - I expect Sammy Watkins, former teammate of CJ Spiller at Clemson, to go in the top 4 so it's a bit unrealistic to see him last until 7 in this but all that matters is that he isn't there at 9. Mike Evans, #1 target for Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M, is a guy I would strongly consider at 9, moreso prior to trading for Mike Williams but it would be great value for the team in my opinion. Evans gets scooped right before the Bills pick so we don't have to deal with the internal conflict whether to draft him or not.
Who I Considered:
  • Eric Ebron (TE) - With Matthews and Evans gone (I expect Watkins to be long gone in real life), as of the minute prior to starting this mock, I would have taken University of North Carolina stud Eric Ebron in a heartbeat. I have been pumping Jake Matthews & Eric Ebron for a month. If you follow me on Twitter, you would know that, however when it came time to select a player, I just got this sinking feeling that the Bills are going to look for value at a different position in the first round and pass on Ebron. I would love Ebron at 9th overall as I am one of the biggest advocates of an athletic TE in your offense but I think the Bills go elsewhere and wait on a TE.
Who I Chose:
  • Taylor Lewan (OT) - I think drafting a stud RT will go a long way for this offense. If the Bills miss out on Jake Matthews, I think they get Taylor Lewan from the University of Michigan who manned the LT position for mobile QB's Denard Robinson & Devin Gardner. Lewan is physical, durable and proven, playing in the well-respected BIG10 for the last four years. Lewan not only makes the OL better but it improves the offense as a whole, opening up holes for Spiller & Jackson and giving Manuel more time to make the throws down field. Pears struggled mightily last year. In a perfect world, Chris Hairston could man the position and we could get value elsewhere but he's a big question mark with his injury. This isn't a sexy pick but it's a necessary one. If you could guarantee OT's Morgan Moses or Jawuan James would be there in the 2nd round, I would go with Ebron in the 1st and one of them in the 2nd but I don't think that happens so you make the safe pick and shore up your OL with Taylor Lewan.

Round 2 - 41st Overall

Just Missed Out On:
  • Dee Ford (DE) & DeMarcus Lawrence (DE/ OLB) - The Bills made the switch from 3-4 to 4-3 and while they have Mario Williams & Jerry Hughes, they don't have much behind them. Dee Ford was by far Auburn's best defensive player and could wreak havoc in an offense across from Mario Williams however he heads to Atlanta just a couple picks prior. DeMarcus Lawrence from Boise State has been picking up a ton of steam as of late as a 4-3 DE or a 3-4 OLB.
  • Kyle Fuller (CB/S) -  The Bills brought in Kyle Fuller from Virginia Tech a few separate time this off-season. Fuller is versatile and can play the CB position or S. The Bills seem to be set at CB after signing Corey Graham in the off-season but he may be a candidate to start at S across from Aaron Williams which would re-create a need at CB. Fuller's versatility could go a long way in bringing some depth to both of these positions.
Who I Considered:
  • Ryan Shazier (LB) & Kyle Van Noy (LB) - Ryan Shazier, LB from the Ohio State University has been moving up the charts lately and I don't think he lasts until this pick. He isn't the flashiest player but he's got good closing speed and makes consistent tackles which is what you want out of your LB's. I think Kyle Van Noy, LB from BYU, is there when the Bills pick and man does this guy play the game the right way! He is an absolute play maker, creating turnovers, stuffing the run and he holds his own in coverage. This is a guy I would not mind pairing with Kiko Alonso at the LB position for years to come.
Who I Chose:
  • Jace Amaro (TE) - I love me an athletic TE. Jace Amaro from Texas Tech is exactly that. This guy has strong hands in traffic and can run after the catch. He is athletic and can make plays all over the field. He came from a pass-happy offense so his numbers may be inflated but when the ball was thrown to him, he made plays. Not the best blocker in the world but he was rarely asked to. It doesn't mean he can't, it just means he wasn't asked to. When you bring such a unique dimension to your offense, you won't be asked to block often and that's not why he would be brought to Buffalo. He instantly upgrades our offense pairing with sure handed Scott Chandler to become EJ Manuel's best friend in our offense. If he's gone, I would be just as happy with Austin Sefarian-Jenkins (TE - Washington) however I think the Bills really like Troy Niklas (TE - Notre Dame).

Round 3 - 73rd Overall

Just Missed Out On:
  • Deone Bucannon (S) - Hard hitting S from Washington State would pair nicely with play maker Aaron Williams in the back end.
Who I Considered:
  • Craig Loston (S) - I think the Bills replace Jairus Byrd in house with Duke Williams, Da'Norris Searcy or Corey Graham however a player like Craig Loston from LSU could get some serious consideration.
Who I Chose:
  • Kareem Martin (DE) - I don't love this pick but the value is good. The DE position got some consideration in the 2nd round and the Bills seem to want some depth behind their starters. Kareem Martin, former teammate of Eric Ebron at UNC, is a very efficient player at rushing the QB. He would offer good value at this pick as I'm not too in love with a lot of the prospects on the board at this time. The Bills brought in a lot of RB's this off-season and there are some good ones on the board but I think it would be a luxury pick that they can't afford at this point.

Round 4 - 109th Overall

Just Missed Out On:
  • Loucheiz Purifoy (CB) - I loved watching Purifoy at Florida. He was nasty on the edge and was always around the ball. He also made an impact on special teams despite being a full time starter.
  • Donte Moncrief (WR) - I don't think the WR is a huge position of need after acquiring Mike Williams in the off-season but Moncrief, from Ole Miss, offers great value at this point in the draft and would be a tough prospect to pass up on if he was there at pick 109.
  • Yawin Smallwood (LB) - The bright spot on a very bad Connecticut team. Smallwood consistently filled up the stat sheet, making plays and keeping UConn in games they did not belong in. He unfortunately gets taken one pick before the Bills make their 4th round selection.
Who I Considered:
  • Lache Seastrunk (RB) - I said before that the Bills have been bringing in RB's and this is one of them. Seastrunk from Baylor, by way of Oregon, is everything you want in a RB. He is fast as lightning but as physical as a bull. I will never forget a run he made where he was in the open, tore his hamstring and hobbled on one leg for another 20 yards. If the Bills feel they need a RB to compliment what they have, I really like the value of Seastrunk in the 4th.
Who I Chose:
  • Shayne Skov (LB) - Stanford's defense has been solid for years in the offense laden PAC-10/12 and he's one of the main reasons why. His specialty is timing blitzes and disrupting timing plays as he just always seems to know where to be. He isn't the fastest player but plays quicker than his 40 time much like Vontaze Burfict, another fellow Pac-10/12 player enjoying a nice NFL career despite what the critics had to say about him leading up to the draft. Skov is efficient, solid and would be a maven on special teams until he takes over the inevitable departure of Brandon Spikes.

Round 5 - 149th Overall

Just Missed Out On:
  • Terrance West (RB) - Towson RB, Terrance West, tore up inferior competition in his college career and was brought in by the Bills for a visit this off-season. They seem committed to add some depth to the position through the draft with West being a potential candidate.
Who I Considered:
  • Michael Sam (DE) - The much scrutinized DE from Missouri would be a nice value pick if the Bills didn't take Kareem Martin earlier in the draft.
  • Ross Cockrell (CB)  - Ross Cockrell, from Duke, was brought in for a visit by the Bills this off-season. He was a solid contributor for an underrated and surprising stingy Duke defense.
Who I Chose:
  • Phillip Gaines (CB) - If the Bills want to move Corey Graham to S, the CB position could use some depth. Gaines, from Rice, was a magnet to the ball in the pass-happy Conference USA, either intercepting passes or knocking them down at an impressive rate. He is mach-speed fast and despite not being the best tackler, may be asked to contribute on special teams, especially as a Gunner. Would be nice depth as you can never have too many CB's.

Round 6th - 185th overall

The Bill 6th round, 185th overall pick was traded to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Mike Williams (WR) so you can include him as part of your draft class and if I may give my opinion, that's pretty good value. You get an established WR with some size at a point in the draft where the Bills are more known for selecting projects and eventual non-contributors to their team. Just look at the list of their last 10 6th rounders! Could this have been different? Could they have found the next diamond in the rough? Yes, they could have but it's far from a sure thing. I'll take Mike Williams with the 185th overall pick any day of the week, including this particular Saturday where this pick will be used, by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Round 7 - 223rd Overall

Just Missed Out On:
  • Kevin Norwood (WR) - Kevin Norwood enjoyed a nice season at Alabama and would offer good value in the 7th round. I think he'll go higher than the 7th round in real life but in this mock, the Buccaneers replace recently traded Mike Williams with a high upside player in Norwood.
Who I Considered:
  • Aaron Lynch (DE) - Former top prospect and productive player at Notre Dame, he fell out of favor and transferred to USF where he never quite lived up to expectations.
  • Aaron Colvin (CB)  - A very good college player who tore his knee and has watched his draft stock plummet since. Some team is going to get a very good player who will come back in 2015 with a chip on his shoulder. Have the Bills not drafted Phillip Gaines in the 5th round in this mock, I would take a chance on Aaron Colvin in a second.
Who I Chose:
  • Isaiah Crowell (RB) - Former top prospect and productive player for the Georgia Bulldogs of the SEC, Crowell fell out of favor and transferred to Alabama State where he stayed out of trouble for the most part. The Bills have wanted to upgrade the RB like I've said numerous times in this mock but haven't done so. 7th rounders are far from sure things so the Bills take a flier on a troubled but talented RB in Crowell.

2014 Draft Results
1. Taylor Lewan - RT
2. Jace Amaro - TE
3. Kareem Martin - DE
4. Shayne Skov - LB
5. Phillip Gaines - CB
6. Pick traded to TB for Mike Williams - WR
7. Isaiah Crowell - RB

Strengths: The Bills get an instant starter in Taylor Lewan, shoring up the OL pushing Erik Pears & Chris Hairston to backups and with their starting experience offers nice depth at a pivotal position. Jace Amaro brings in a new dimension to the offense, starting immediately and offering a big, athletic target for second year QB EJ Manuel. Kareem Martin & Shayne Skov after immediate depth in the front seven with future starting potential. Phillip Gaines and Isaiah Crowell are what 5th-7th round prospects usually are, fliers with high upside. You throw in the value that the Bills got for Mike Williams and this is a solid draft.

Weaknesses: The draft isn't sexy and won't be heralded by analysts but it's solid. While Gaines & Crowell are high upside players, they don't offer much in the form of special teams which is an area of weakness for the Bills. The Bills upgraded that position in FA and can do the same in the UDFA period. I think how the first 8 picks went, it really handcuffed the Bills. If the draft shakes out the way this did, you hope to get Eric Ebron & cross your fingers Morgan Moses, OT from Virginia falls to you like Cordy Glenn did but you can't bank on it. You don't upgrade the WR but I don't think you need to after acquiring Mike Williams. The Bills fail to draft a potential starting S to pair with Aaron Williams or draft any depth at OG which is much needed if Chris Williams fails to perform as an effective starter.