I have been seeing the dozens upon dozens of trade rumors involving the Bills and what feels like every other team in the NFL. The Bills have been dubbed 'the team most likely to trade up' after being linked to the Texans at #1, Rams at #2 and Jaguars at #3. They have been said to be enamored with Jadeveon Clowney, Sammy Watkins, Greg Robinson, Jake Matthews, Khalil Mack and Mike Evans. There is a strong chance that none of them drop to the Bills at #9, so of course, if they love these prospects, the only way they can get one of them is by trading up. Who are they going to trade up with and if they do find a partner to tango with, which prospect are they going to draft?
I don't think the Bills trade up to #1 with the Texans but let's go over what the most recent proposed ESPN trade prediction involving the two teams was. This will not be included in my top 6 predictions but let's allow ourselves to be entertained by what it would take to move up and get the much scrutinized Jadeveon Clowney.
Bills Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 1st Overall
Texans Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 9th Overall
2014 2nd Round Pick - 41st Overall
2015 1st Round Pick - TBD
2015 3rd Round Pick - TBD
2016 2nd Round Pick - TBD
Two 1st round picks, two 2nd round picks and one 3rd round pick for a total of five picks. It may be something I would entertain if the Bills were trading up for a QB like Andrew Luck but not for Jadeveon Clowney. Absolutely not. He's a great player and I would be ecstatic if we had the first pick and he was sitting there for the taking but to trade up, unloading all of those picks in the process, just doesn't sit well with me. While Clowney is a great prospect, he is far from a pristine prospect. His work ethic and motor during games has been questioned and isn't known to play through minor injuries. No thanks.
Here are my six predictions which features three trade up scenarios & three trade down scenarios:
1) Buffalo Bills & St. Louis Rams
Bills Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 2nd Overall
Rams Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 9th Overall
2014 2nd Round Pick - 41st Overall
2015 1st Round Pick - TBD
2015 3rd Round Pick - TBD
What makes this trade happen: The Bills really love Greg Robinson or Sammy Watkins. I don't think the Bills trade up to 2nd overall for Khalil Mack but they have been rumored to be making calls to land one of these prospects and these two teams did business together last year swapping 1st round picks.
Why it works for both sides: Whaley wants to make a splash and get a dynamic WR for EJ or shore up the right side of the OL to protect EJ. All of his eggs are in the EJ Manuel basket and he's willing to do what it takes to make that pick pay off. Rams move down, pick up even more picks and choose the best player that falls to them at #9 as they don't seem to be overly in love with anyone at #2.
My feelings: No thanks. I like Sammy Watkins and Greg Robinson but not at this price.
2) Buffalo Bills & Jacksonville Jaguars
Bills Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 3rd Overall
Jaguars Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 9th Overall
2014 2nd Round Pick - 41st Overall
2015 2nd Round Pick - TBD
What makes this trade happen: One of Watkins & Robinson fall and the Bills feel inclined to move up for them. The price reduces significantly every time you move down one spot this high up in the draft so if the Bills wanted to move up to #2 and the Rams show them down, the value looks even better at #3 having to pay less while getting the same coveted prospect if he remains on the board.
Why it works for both sides: The Jaguars are in shambles. They have a ton of holes. They can use a franchise QB, some OL help and a WR since Justin Blackmon's future is up in the air. They make the trade with the Bills, pick up a couple extra picks to fill holes and grab the best QB that falls to #9 which could very well be the best QB if none come off the board by that point.
My feelings: No thanks. I like Sammy Watkins and Greg Robinson but not at this price either.
3) Buffalo Bills & Oakland Raiders
Bills Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 5th Overall
Raiders Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 9th Overall
2014 2nd Round Pick - 41st Overall
What makes this trade happen: The Bills are targeting Jake Matthews or Mike Evans and feel the need to jump the Falcons & Buccaneers in order to make sure they get the prospect that they covet.
Why it works for both sides: The Raiders are in the same exact boat as the Jaguars. They need a franchise QB and could use a WR. If they like Mike Evans enough, they may stay here and take him but if not, they move back 4 spots and draft the BPA to fill one of their holes.
My feelings: I think this is the most likely and reasonable trade out of my six. I think it's very realistic that the Bills want Matthews or Evans and jump the necessary teams to get the one they want. It isn't a huge jump, benefits both teams and only costs a moderate package to do so.
4) Buffalo Bills & Dallas Cowboys
Bills Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 16th Overall
2014 2nd Round Pick - 47th Overall
Cowboys Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 9th Overall
2014 5th Round Pick - 149th Overall
What makes this trade happen: The Bills lose out on Mike Evans and the top 3 OT's and they desperately try to trade out of the 9th pick. Many of the teams from 10-16 have similar needs so they make calls and finally find a partner.
Why it works for both sides: The Cowboys move up to take DT Aaron Donald or S Ha Ha Clinton Dix before they go through the gauntlet of the Lions, Giants, Bears and Steelers.
My feelings: I think this is the second most realistic trade and my personal wish. I would not mind moving down 7 spots while picking up an extra 2nd round pick, much like last year. I think the Bills could still land Eric Ebron at 16 who they might take at 9 if they are unable to trade out of that spot.
5) Buffalo Bills & Philadelphia Eagles
Bills Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 22nd Overall
2014 2nd Round Pick - 54th Overall
2015 2nd Round Pick - TBD
Eagles Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 9th Overall
What makes this trade happen: The Bills lose out on Mike Evans and the top 3 OT's and they desperately try to trade out of the 9th pick.
Why it works for both sides: The Eagles want a stud WR like Odell Beckham or Brandin Cooks who wouldn't make it to them if they stayed put. Chip Kelly is ready to win now and needs an explosive player to replace DeSean Jackson.
My feelings: A little less likely than the Cowboys trade but under the same theme. I would like it but I also love the idea of trading back and acquiring more picks. I don't like this as much as the Cowboys trade because this puts the Bills into an uncomfortable part of the 1st round in terms of which prospects are available and which ones they need.
6) Buffalo Bills & San Francisco 49ers
Bills Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 30th Overall
2014 2nd Round Pick - 56th Overall
2014 2nd Round Pick - 61st Overall
2014 4th Round Pick - 129th Overall
49ers Get
2014 1st Round Pick - 9th Overall
2014 5th Round Pick - 149th Overall
What makes this trade happen: The 49ers want an explosive WR, much like the Eagles. The Bills want to trade out. They don't plan on moving back this far but the amount of picks and prospects they can bring in is enticing.
Why it works for both sides: The Bills move down and land a RT such as Morgan Moses who can start immediately from Day One. They pick up a plethora of picks in the process. The 49ers feel like they are one player away from getting past the Seahawks, into the Superbowl and finally winning one. Harbaugh feels like he's on the hot seat and creates a sense of urgency to win now, mortgaging some of their MANY picks this year.
My feelings: Yeah this won't happen but look at those picks the Bills get back! The 49ers have plenty of ammo in this draft and really want to trade up. I think the drop for the Bills is too far and too risky but could really do some damage in terms of feeling holes and adding depth. Morgan Moses here to start at RT (look him up, he's solid) + three 2nd round picks to add a TE, LB and either WR or DE? I have only one more night where I can dream of this scenario.
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