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Monday, April 28, 2014

Mock Draft 1.0 - Buffalo Bills

I will be posting 3 separate Mock Drafts prior to the 2014 NFL Draft which will take place on Thursday, May 8th. This posting will be the first of three. I will post another one next Monday (5/2) and my final one on Thursday, the day of the draft (5/8).

Instead of posting a Mock Draft off of who I want or who I think will be there, etc. I found this really cool site that I've been utilizing. The site is www.fanspeak.com and it auto-drafts for all of the teams based on three different computerized rankings but gives you the opportunity to choose one team and draft for them based on who is available at the time of their pick. The rankings are updated at the beginning of every week so they stay in line with what is happening in real life and while some might complain with a player or two getting drafted higher than expected, I think it adds to the overall experience that we see every year with a team reaching on a lower rated player or a higher rated player falling for whatever reason.

I, of course, will choose the Buffalo Bills and draft for them based on who I would take with a brief synopsis on who I was considering at the time and why I ultimately chose the player that I did. I will post screenshots of who was taken prior and who was on the board so you can follow along.

Round 1 - 9th Overall

Just Missed Out On:
  • Jake Matthews (OT) - I wanted Jake Matthews, OT from Texas A&M, for the last month or so. I initially fell in love with Greg Robinson but realized early on, he won't make it to 9th overall so I "settled" on wanting Jake Matthews but at this point in time, I don't think he lasts until the Bills are on the clock either and that holds true in this mock.
  • Sammy Watkins (WR) & Mike Evans (WR) - I expect Sammy Watkins, former teammate of CJ Spiller at Clemson, to go in the top 4 so it's a bit unrealistic to see him last until 7 in this but all that matters is that he isn't there at 9. Mike Evans, #1 target for Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M, is a guy I would strongly consider at 9, moreso prior to trading for Mike Williams but it would be great value for the team in my opinion. Evans gets scooped right before the Bills pick so we don't have to deal with the internal conflict whether to draft him or not.
Who I Considered:
  • Eric Ebron (TE) - With Matthews and Evans gone (I expect Watkins to be long gone in real life), as of the minute prior to starting this mock, I would have taken University of North Carolina stud Eric Ebron in a heartbeat. I have been pumping Jake Matthews & Eric Ebron for a month. If you follow me on Twitter, you would know that, however when it came time to select a player, I just got this sinking feeling that the Bills are going to look for value at a different position in the first round and pass on Ebron. I would love Ebron at 9th overall as I am one of the biggest advocates of an athletic TE in your offense but I think the Bills go elsewhere and wait on a TE.
Who I Chose:
  • Taylor Lewan (OT) - I think drafting a stud RT will go a long way for this offense. If the Bills miss out on Jake Matthews, I think they get Taylor Lewan from the University of Michigan who manned the LT position for mobile QB's Denard Robinson & Devin Gardner. Lewan is physical, durable and proven, playing in the well-respected BIG10 for the last four years. Lewan not only makes the OL better but it improves the offense as a whole, opening up holes for Spiller & Jackson and giving Manuel more time to make the throws down field. Pears struggled mightily last year. In a perfect world, Chris Hairston could man the position and we could get value elsewhere but he's a big question mark with his injury. This isn't a sexy pick but it's a necessary one. If you could guarantee OT's Morgan Moses or Jawuan James would be there in the 2nd round, I would go with Ebron in the 1st and one of them in the 2nd but I don't think that happens so you make the safe pick and shore up your OL with Taylor Lewan.

Round 2 - 41st Overall

Just Missed Out On:
  • Dee Ford (DE) & DeMarcus Lawrence (DE/ OLB) - The Bills made the switch from 3-4 to 4-3 and while they have Mario Williams & Jerry Hughes, they don't have much behind them. Dee Ford was by far Auburn's best defensive player and could wreak havoc in an offense across from Mario Williams however he heads to Atlanta just a couple picks prior. DeMarcus Lawrence from Boise State has been picking up a ton of steam as of late as a 4-3 DE or a 3-4 OLB.
  • Kyle Fuller (CB/S) -  The Bills brought in Kyle Fuller from Virginia Tech a few separate time this off-season. Fuller is versatile and can play the CB position or S. The Bills seem to be set at CB after signing Corey Graham in the off-season but he may be a candidate to start at S across from Aaron Williams which would re-create a need at CB. Fuller's versatility could go a long way in bringing some depth to both of these positions.
Who I Considered:
  • Ryan Shazier (LB) & Kyle Van Noy (LB) - Ryan Shazier, LB from the Ohio State University has been moving up the charts lately and I don't think he lasts until this pick. He isn't the flashiest player but he's got good closing speed and makes consistent tackles which is what you want out of your LB's. I think Kyle Van Noy, LB from BYU, is there when the Bills pick and man does this guy play the game the right way! He is an absolute play maker, creating turnovers, stuffing the run and he holds his own in coverage. This is a guy I would not mind pairing with Kiko Alonso at the LB position for years to come.
Who I Chose:
  • Jace Amaro (TE) - I love me an athletic TE. Jace Amaro from Texas Tech is exactly that. This guy has strong hands in traffic and can run after the catch. He is athletic and can make plays all over the field. He came from a pass-happy offense so his numbers may be inflated but when the ball was thrown to him, he made plays. Not the best blocker in the world but he was rarely asked to. It doesn't mean he can't, it just means he wasn't asked to. When you bring such a unique dimension to your offense, you won't be asked to block often and that's not why he would be brought to Buffalo. He instantly upgrades our offense pairing with sure handed Scott Chandler to become EJ Manuel's best friend in our offense. If he's gone, I would be just as happy with Austin Sefarian-Jenkins (TE - Washington) however I think the Bills really like Troy Niklas (TE - Notre Dame).

Round 3 - 73rd Overall

Just Missed Out On:
  • Deone Bucannon (S) - Hard hitting S from Washington State would pair nicely with play maker Aaron Williams in the back end.
Who I Considered:
  • Craig Loston (S) - I think the Bills replace Jairus Byrd in house with Duke Williams, Da'Norris Searcy or Corey Graham however a player like Craig Loston from LSU could get some serious consideration.
Who I Chose:
  • Kareem Martin (DE) - I don't love this pick but the value is good. The DE position got some consideration in the 2nd round and the Bills seem to want some depth behind their starters. Kareem Martin, former teammate of Eric Ebron at UNC, is a very efficient player at rushing the QB. He would offer good value at this pick as I'm not too in love with a lot of the prospects on the board at this time. The Bills brought in a lot of RB's this off-season and there are some good ones on the board but I think it would be a luxury pick that they can't afford at this point.

Round 4 - 109th Overall

Just Missed Out On:
  • Loucheiz Purifoy (CB) - I loved watching Purifoy at Florida. He was nasty on the edge and was always around the ball. He also made an impact on special teams despite being a full time starter.
  • Donte Moncrief (WR) - I don't think the WR is a huge position of need after acquiring Mike Williams in the off-season but Moncrief, from Ole Miss, offers great value at this point in the draft and would be a tough prospect to pass up on if he was there at pick 109.
  • Yawin Smallwood (LB) - The bright spot on a very bad Connecticut team. Smallwood consistently filled up the stat sheet, making plays and keeping UConn in games they did not belong in. He unfortunately gets taken one pick before the Bills make their 4th round selection.
Who I Considered:
  • Lache Seastrunk (RB) - I said before that the Bills have been bringing in RB's and this is one of them. Seastrunk from Baylor, by way of Oregon, is everything you want in a RB. He is fast as lightning but as physical as a bull. I will never forget a run he made where he was in the open, tore his hamstring and hobbled on one leg for another 20 yards. If the Bills feel they need a RB to compliment what they have, I really like the value of Seastrunk in the 4th.
Who I Chose:
  • Shayne Skov (LB) - Stanford's defense has been solid for years in the offense laden PAC-10/12 and he's one of the main reasons why. His specialty is timing blitzes and disrupting timing plays as he just always seems to know where to be. He isn't the fastest player but plays quicker than his 40 time much like Vontaze Burfict, another fellow Pac-10/12 player enjoying a nice NFL career despite what the critics had to say about him leading up to the draft. Skov is efficient, solid and would be a maven on special teams until he takes over the inevitable departure of Brandon Spikes.

Round 5 - 149th Overall

Just Missed Out On:
  • Terrance West (RB) - Towson RB, Terrance West, tore up inferior competition in his college career and was brought in by the Bills for a visit this off-season. They seem committed to add some depth to the position through the draft with West being a potential candidate.
Who I Considered:
  • Michael Sam (DE) - The much scrutinized DE from Missouri would be a nice value pick if the Bills didn't take Kareem Martin earlier in the draft.
  • Ross Cockrell (CB)  - Ross Cockrell, from Duke, was brought in for a visit by the Bills this off-season. He was a solid contributor for an underrated and surprising stingy Duke defense.
Who I Chose:
  • Phillip Gaines (CB) - If the Bills want to move Corey Graham to S, the CB position could use some depth. Gaines, from Rice, was a magnet to the ball in the pass-happy Conference USA, either intercepting passes or knocking them down at an impressive rate. He is mach-speed fast and despite not being the best tackler, may be asked to contribute on special teams, especially as a Gunner. Would be nice depth as you can never have too many CB's.

Round 6th - 185th overall

The Bill 6th round, 185th overall pick was traded to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Mike Williams (WR) so you can include him as part of your draft class and if I may give my opinion, that's pretty good value. You get an established WR with some size at a point in the draft where the Bills are more known for selecting projects and eventual non-contributors to their team. Just look at the list of their last 10 6th rounders! Could this have been different? Could they have found the next diamond in the rough? Yes, they could have but it's far from a sure thing. I'll take Mike Williams with the 185th overall pick any day of the week, including this particular Saturday where this pick will be used, by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Round 7 - 223rd Overall

Just Missed Out On:
  • Kevin Norwood (WR) - Kevin Norwood enjoyed a nice season at Alabama and would offer good value in the 7th round. I think he'll go higher than the 7th round in real life but in this mock, the Buccaneers replace recently traded Mike Williams with a high upside player in Norwood.
Who I Considered:
  • Aaron Lynch (DE) - Former top prospect and productive player at Notre Dame, he fell out of favor and transferred to USF where he never quite lived up to expectations.
  • Aaron Colvin (CB)  - A very good college player who tore his knee and has watched his draft stock plummet since. Some team is going to get a very good player who will come back in 2015 with a chip on his shoulder. Have the Bills not drafted Phillip Gaines in the 5th round in this mock, I would take a chance on Aaron Colvin in a second.
Who I Chose:
  • Isaiah Crowell (RB) - Former top prospect and productive player for the Georgia Bulldogs of the SEC, Crowell fell out of favor and transferred to Alabama State where he stayed out of trouble for the most part. The Bills have wanted to upgrade the RB like I've said numerous times in this mock but haven't done so. 7th rounders are far from sure things so the Bills take a flier on a troubled but talented RB in Crowell.

2014 Draft Results
1. Taylor Lewan - RT
2. Jace Amaro - TE
3. Kareem Martin - DE
4. Shayne Skov - LB
5. Phillip Gaines - CB
6. Pick traded to TB for Mike Williams - WR
7. Isaiah Crowell - RB

Strengths: The Bills get an instant starter in Taylor Lewan, shoring up the OL pushing Erik Pears & Chris Hairston to backups and with their starting experience offers nice depth at a pivotal position. Jace Amaro brings in a new dimension to the offense, starting immediately and offering a big, athletic target for second year QB EJ Manuel. Kareem Martin & Shayne Skov after immediate depth in the front seven with future starting potential. Phillip Gaines and Isaiah Crowell are what 5th-7th round prospects usually are, fliers with high upside. You throw in the value that the Bills got for Mike Williams and this is a solid draft.

Weaknesses: The draft isn't sexy and won't be heralded by analysts but it's solid. While Gaines & Crowell are high upside players, they don't offer much in the form of special teams which is an area of weakness for the Bills. The Bills upgraded that position in FA and can do the same in the UDFA period. I think how the first 8 picks went, it really handcuffed the Bills. If the draft shakes out the way this did, you hope to get Eric Ebron & cross your fingers Morgan Moses, OT from Virginia falls to you like Cordy Glenn did but you can't bank on it. You don't upgrade the WR but I don't think you need to after acquiring Mike Williams. The Bills fail to draft a potential starting S to pair with Aaron Williams or draft any depth at OG which is much needed if Chris Williams fails to perform as an effective starter.


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