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Saturday, April 19, 2014

2014 NBA Playoffs Predictions

This is the first ever guest appearance article on Silver Lining Sports. At first I planned on doing everything on the site by myself but with the NBA Playoffs staring me in the face and an underwhelming grasp on the season up until this point, I felt like it was an opportunity to branch out and let someone else with a better basketball background give it a go.

Now, I say better basketball background. It's not as if I have no basketball background. I played basketball in 8th grade at All Saints and was the second leading scorer on the team. It was during this season that I witnessed one of my favorite sporting moments to date. My best friend Kyle Kelly, a teammate of mine changed on the fly during our first game. It was amazing. He's a hockey player so he had no idea that it wasn't allowed. This was one of the few rules that I knew at the time. You'll still see me wearing my #23 Michael Jordan inspired All Saints jersey whenever I play basketball with my much better friends. I'm good for 4 minutes of hard defense and 2-3 charges that I call myself. I'm pretty bad so my friends let me get away with it.

Now that I got that out of the way, let's focus on this quality article breaking down the matchups, predictions and analysis of this years upcoming NBA Playoffs. I tweeted out an open invite to anyone who was interested and I was like to get a response from Zach Bouley, who in my opinion went above and beyond the call of action in writing this article. At first glance when I opened his attachment, I was worried that this piece was going to put shame to anything I've written to this point. At that point, I knew I made a good decision with the guest appearance and hope to do more in the future! Give Zach a follow on Twitter and let him know how you liked the article: @ZMBouley25. Other than a few minor edits and a reformat, everything from this point forward is all Zach Bouley. Enjoy!

The Second Season: 2014 NBA Playoff Preview
Matchups, Predictions, and Analysis of this year’s upcoming NBA Playoffs

By Zach Bouley (@ZMBouley25)

The 2013-14 NBA regular season has finally come to a close, and it was full of many enjoyable and wacky moments.  From Jason Collins being the first openly gay athlete to play in a professional sports game to J.R. Smith attempting to untie the shoes of multiple opposing players, this season has certainly been one to remember.  It includes the superior back and forth play by the games best players, LeBron James and Kevin Durant.  It included the emergence of great players such as Blake Griffin and Stephen Curry to superstar status.  It included the constant rise and fall of the East’s top team, the Indiana Pacers.  It included a 48 win Phoenix Suns team not making the playoffs due to the loaded Western Conference.  And lastly, it includes a NBA’s first.  This year marks the first time in NBA history that the Boston Celtics, New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers all will be watching the NBA playoffs from their television sets at home.  And that brings us to the playoffs.  The second season.  The most important season.  The most entertaining season.  And this year’s first round matchups are certainly something to talk about.  What better way to do so then through analysis, matchups, and predictions.  Going in order from least compelling series to most compelling series:

Power Ranking Interest: 8th
Teams & Seeds: 7 - Charlotte Bobcats v.s. 2 - Miami Heat (Eastern Conference)
Season Series: Miami won 4-0.
Game 1: Sunday April 20th at 3:30 PM ET on ESPN

Matchup To Watch: Al Jefferson vs. Chris Bosh. This will prove to be the most important matchup of this series.  Al Jefferson is the most significant and efficient offensive player that the Bobcats have, and is possibly one of the best post players in the NBA.  He will be able to have his way with Chris Bosh in the post, and it should be interesting to see how the Heat decide to defend him.  Remember, he also had a huge game on the night that Lebron James scored 61 points, with 38 points and 19 rebounds.  Chris Bosh’s ability to drag Jefferson out of the paint and towards the 3-point line defensively will open driving lanes for the likes of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.

Series Analysis: The Heat have beaten the Bobcats 15 straight times.  And out of the 4 times that they’ve played this season, the game was only realistically close one time.  The Bobcats should be happy to be back in the playoffs and they look like a constant playoff team for years to come, but they won’t be making any noise this year against the two time defending champs.  The Heat’s offensive efficiency and overall talent will highly outweigh the Bobcats 4th ranked defense.

Prediction: Heat in 5.

Power Ranking Interest: 7th
Teams & Seeds: 8 - Dallas Mavericks vs. 1 - San Antonio Spurs (Western Conference)
Season Series: San Antonio won 4-0.
Game 1: Sunday April 20th at 12:00 PM ET on TNT

Matchup To Watch: Jose Calderon vs. Tony Parker. Tony Parker has proven constantly every year that he is overlooked in this league’s crop of talented point guards.  He finds ridiculous ways to get himself into the paint to score and get his teammates involved.  He’s a master of game management and he just knows how to win.  Jose Calderon is a dead eye 3 point shooter, topping the league in 3P% this season.  His defense is a constant problem for the Mavericks at times, as he struggles at keeping defenders out of the paint.  How well he can contain Parker will determine if the Mavericks could steal a couple of games from the Spurs.  But if he can’t, the Spurs will cake walk to the second round.

Series Analysis and Prediction: Once again, the Gregg Popovich led San Antonio Spurs flew under the radar all season and ended up with the overall best record in the league.  This series is loaded with future hall of famers with Parker, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Dirk Nowitzki, and Vince Carter. But the Spurs balanced attack and defensive strategy will contain the 3 point shooting of the Mavs.  Dallas doesn’t play enough defense to compete with a savvy and veteran Spurs team.

Prediction: Spurs in 5.

Power Ranking Interest: 6th
Teams & Seeds: 8 - Atlanta Hawks vs. 1 - Indiana Pacers (Eastern Conference)
Season Series: Series tied at 2-2.
Game 1: Saturday April 19th at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN

Matchup To Watch: Jeff Teague vs. George Hill. George Hill can be at times the most important player for the Indiana Pacers.  When he tries to do too much, forces shots, and turns the ball over the Pacers tend to lose.  He needs to focus on getting the ball to his big men and Paul George, and locking down Jeff Teague defensively.  Without Al Horford, Teague is Atlanta’s most important offensive player.  He finds ways to get to the basket and can also shoot it from deep.  If George Hill can contest Teague’s jump shots with his length, and funnel him towards Roy Hibbert on defense, then he will have done his job in this matchup.

Series Analysis and Prediction: The Pacers have been struggling as of late, only going 17-16 in their last 33 games.  They have some cause for concern, having lost to the Hawks at home by 19 the last time they played a couple of weeks ago.  But if the Pacers stick to their game plan, by suffocating the Hawks on defense and pounding the interior with post-ups from David West and Roy Hibbert and drives by Paul George and Lance Stephenson, then they should win this series.  But this is a series to watch, because the Hawks are a confident and fearless group who can catch the Pacers by surprise if they try to sleep walk.

Prediction: Pacers in 6.

Power Ranking Interest: 5th
Teams & Seeds: 5 - Washington Wizards vs. 4 - Chicago Bulls (Eastern Conference)
Season Series: Chicago won 2-1.
Game 1: Sunday April 20th at 7:00 PM ET on TNT

Matchup To Watch: Trevor Ariza vs. Jimmy Butler. John Wall is clearly the best player for the Wizards, and probably will be the best player on the court in this series.  But he has always been an unselfish point guard, and he led the league in assists this season.  The Wizards are at their best when other players score, other than Wall.  The Bulls have gruesome struggles scoring the ball some times.  Both Ariza and Butler are long, physical defenders.  But whichever team gets more out of their starting wings offensively will be the team that will have the upper edge.  Look for Wall to get Ariza going early in this series.

Series Analysis and Prediction: It is a disappointment that the Wizards, finally in the playoffs again, have drew the Bulls as their first round matchup.  It will be hard for them to unleash their youthful and exciting back court of John Wall and Bradley Beal.  Joakim Noah has been the focal point for Chicago offensively and defensively this year without Derrick Rose, and he has emerged as a MVP candidate this season.  The Bulls will find ways to slow down the speed of the Wizards, and will use their “grind it out” mentality to win this series.  Chicago just knows how to win when the cards are dealt against them.

Prediction: Bulls in 6.

Power Ranking Interest: 4th
Teams & Seeds: 7 -  Memphis Grizzlies vs. 2 - Oklahoma City Thunder (Western Conference)
Season Series: Oklahoma City won 3-1.
Game 1: Saturday April 19th at 9:30 PM ET on ESPN

Matchup To Watch: Zach Randolph vs. Serge Ibaka. It would be easy to say that the matchup to watch for this series would be Kevin Durant, the MVP, against the multiple wing defenders that the Grizzlies will throw at him.  But you could put the moon in between him and the basket, and he’d still find ways to score.  Serge Ibaka has to be a viable third option for the Thunder offensively.  He struggled to score efficiently in last year’s playoffs, and it ended up costing a Westbrook-less Thunder.  It is also important for him to be patient defensively against the craft Randolph.  Zach Randolph is the Grizzlies best offensive option, and he has gotten hot lately.  He needs to be at the top of his game for the Grizzlies to have any chance in this series.

Series Analysis and Prediction: The Grizzlies have the confidence to upset the Thunder in the first round, since they have experience beating a Durant led Thunder team.  But last year’s playoff series wad much different due to Russell Westbrook being injured.  The Grizzlies will try to put the offensive firepower of OKC in a strangle hold with Mike Conley, Marc Gasol, and Tony Allen.  But Durant has proven to be in a different mindset this season, and will not allow his team to be upset in the first round.  The Grizzlies defense and heart will find a way to steal a couple of games at home.

Prediction: Thunder in 6.

Power Ranking Interest: 3rd
Teams & Seeds: 5 - Portland Trail Blazers vs. 4 - Houston Rockets (Western Conference)
Season Series: Houston won 3-1.
Game 1: Sunday April 20th at 9:30 PM ET on TNT

Matchup To Watch: Nicolas Batum vs. Chandler Parsons. These are certainly not the two best players in this series with the likes of Dwight Howard, James Harden, Damian Lillard, and Lamarcus Aldridge on both teams.  But they both play very important roles on their respective teams.  Each player has to be defensive wing stoppers, and then offensively they have to each be a swiss army knife.  Scoring, shooting, passing, and rebounding are called upon for both Batum and Parsons.  Whichever one of them stuffs the stat sheet more will get the upper hand in the matchup, and give their team the better opportunity to win the series.

Series Analysis and Prediction: This series will be absolutely ridiculous to watch.  If you like defense, make sure you turn off your t.v. and run and hide.  These team love to get up and down the court and score as many points as possible.  The Rockets are tops in the league in making 3 point field goals, and they have to top closer in the series in James Harden.  The Blazers started off the season hot, then cooled off for a while, but now are getting hot again at the right time.  The Blazers need to score efficiently, and get contributions from Mo Williams and Wesley Matthews to have a chance.  I just don’t know if they have enough firepower to keep up.

Prediction: Rockets in 6.

Power Ranking Interest: 2nd
Teams & Seeds:  6 - Brooklyn Nets vs. 3 - Toronto Raptors (Eastern Conference)
Season Series: Series tied at 2-2.
Game 1: Saturday April 19th at 12:30 PM ET on ESPN

Matchup To Watch: Deron Williams vs. Kyle Lowry. Deron Williams hasn’t been the player that he used to be the last two years. Kyle Lowry has had an absolute breakout year, and the Raptors are happy that they decided not to deal him at the trade deadline to the Knicks.  Deron Williams has to be efficient.  When he is scoring on low shot attempts, protecting the ball, and getting his teammates involved he is at his best.  He has the tools around him to succeed, he just has to let the game come to him.  Kyle Lowry has to be a jack of all trades to make sure his Raptors don’t get upset, platooning with Demar Derozan in the scoring column and getting his big men involved.

Series Analysis and Prediction: The Raptors got a tough draw, because even though they have home court and the 3 seed, a lot of people are picking the Nets to upset them.  They are a very underrated and under the radar team, with a lot of good pieces.  Lowry, Derozan, and Terrence Ross are talented and young on the wing, and their forwards Amir Johnson and Jonas Valunciunas have been developing at a high rate the last couple of months.  But the experience of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Joe Johnson and Williams will prevail over the young Raptors.

Prediction: Nets in 7.

Power Ranking Interest: 1st
      Teams & Seeds:  6 - Golden State Warriors vs. 3 - Los Angeles Clippers (Western Conference)
Season Series: Series tied at 2-2.
Game 1: Saturday April 19th at 3:30 PM ET on ABC

Matchup To Watch: Stephen Curry vs. Chris Paul. This matchup will be so fun to watch.  The shooting, passing, and dribbling will be a thing of beauty for these two.  They will help their team differently offensively.  Chris Paul tries hard to get his teammates involved and get them going before he finds his own shot.  Stephen Curry needs to both score and assist for the Warriors to upset the Clippers in this series.  Neither team plays much defense, so this will be another Western Conference series that will be high scoring.  If the Clippers and Paul can contain Curry, the Warriors have no chance.

Series Analysis and Prediction: The Warriors seem to always play big in big games.  But this Clippers team has a different feel to them this year with Doc Rivers at the realm.  They are destined for a second round round matchup with the Thunder, and I think they have too much offensive balance and a heavy emergence from Blake Griffin and Deandre Jordan for the Warriors to handle.  Chris Paul is a magician at the point, and he will use his gritty side to slow down the dynamic backcourt of Curry and Klay Thompson.  The Warriors need a strong showing from David Lee and Harrison Barnes or Andre Iguodala along with Thompson and Curry to have any chance.  I’ll take the Clippers.

Prediction: Clippers in 6.

These playoffs will be awesome to watch, no matter what series you are tuning into.  And even though the first round isn’t always easy to predict, I decided to add in my predictions for the rest of the playoffs as well:

Eastern Conference Semi-Finals:
Heat over Nets in 6.
Pacers over Bulls in 7.

Western Conference Semi-Finals:
Spurs over Rockets in 7.
Thunder over Clippers in 7.

Eastern Conference Finals:
Heat over Pacers in 7.

Western Conference Finals:
Thunder over Spurs in 6.

NBA Finals:
Thunder over Heat in 7.
MVP: Kevin Durant

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