2014 NHL Draft Lottery - Buffalo Sabres

There are 30 teams in the NHL and with 16 teams extending their season in hopes of raising Lord Stanley, it leaves 14 teams vying for their their own Stanley Cup of sorts in the form of the #1 overall pick in the upcoming 2014 NHL Draft. The 14 teams who did not qualify for the playoffs may not be in the running for the best trophy in sports this year, but they are hoping to draft the next star who will help them raise it sometime in the future.

The NHL has a lottery to decide the order in the upcoming draft so the order isn't set in stone when the season ends like most other professional sports. Having the worst record definitely increases your odds of landing the 1st overall pick but it doesn't guarantee it. The team with the best odds at wining the lottery is the Buffalo Sabres. The Buffalo Sabres have a 25% chance at winning the lottery since they had the worst overall record, followed by the Florida Panthers who had the second worst record, the Edmonton Oilers who had the third worst record and so on and so forth. The team with the lowest percentage at winning the lottery is the Washington Capitals who had the most points out of the non-playoff teams, being the closest team to making the playoffs but coming up short of qualifying.

While the Capitals have a 0.5% at winning the lottery, there's a team who finished with fewer points that has an even lesser chance at winning the lottery and that is the New Jersey Devils. The New Jersey Devils have a 1.1% chance at having their ping pong ball chosen but a 0% chance at actually landing the #1 pick. Let me explain. If the Devils ping pong ball is chosen, it is put back in and the process continues until anyone but the Devils win the lottery. The New Jersey Devils are facing a league violation from the Ilya Kovalchuk contract fiasco and are set to pick 30th overall in the 2014 1st round no matter the outcome of the lottery or the NHL playoffs, that we know.The Stanley Cup champion will be picking 29th, up one spot from the traditional 30th overall slot that the best team is awarded.

The lottery is simply one ball being chosen to decide the 1st overall pick so the furthest a team can move down is one spot. Every team in the lottery has a chance at landing the #1 overall pick, some teams with higher odds than others so the Washington Capitals, with the worst odds at 0.5%, can land the top pick so the highest a team can move up is technically 13 spots. The lowest the Buffalo Sabres will be picking is 2nd overall if another team wins the lottery and jumps them. The teams in the lottery and their chances at winning are as followed:

1. Buffalo Sabres - 25%
2. Florida Panthers - 18.8%
3. Edmonton Oilers - 14.2%
4. Calgary Flames - 10.7%
5. New York Islanders - 8.1% (A pick the Sabres could end up with)
6. Vancouver Canucks - 6.2%
7. Carolina Hurricanes - 4.7%
8. Toronto Maple Leafs - 3.6%
9. Winnipeg Jets - 2.7%
10. Phoenix Coyotes - 2.1%
11. Ottawa Senators - 1.5%
12. New Jersey Devils - 1.1% (Will draft 30th overall)
13. Nashville Predators - 0.8%
14. Washington Capitals - 0.5%

Looking at this list, there are two additional teams that are guaranteed to move up from their current spots even if they don't win the lottery and that's both the Predators & Capitals when the Devils drop down to 30th.

There are a few scenarios to watch heading into tomorrow's Lottery Selection Show (Tuesday, 8:00p ET) if you are a Sabres fan.

The first scenario is whether the Buffalo Sabres will win the lottery and be awarded the #1 overall pick. If this happens, the Sabres will be choosing between the big 3, two forwards in Sam Reinhart (C) and Sam Bennett (LW) and one stud defensemen in Aaron Ekblad (D). The two prospects rounding out the top 5 are projected to be forwards Michael Dal Colle (LW) and Leon Draisaitl (LW).

Another scenario to keep an eye on is what the New York Islanders do with their 1st round pick. They can protect it, giving the Sabres their 1st round pick next year and a great opportunity at landing the services of stud forward Connor McDavid or they can give the Sabres their 1st round pick this year and keep their organization in the running for McDavid's services next year. The Islanders could very well win the lottery, give their pick to the Sabres and Buffalo would control the top 2 picks where they would most likely draft Ekblad and either Reinhart or Bennett. Most people think that if the Islanders win the lottery, they'll keep the 1st overall pick but if you ask any Sabres fan, having two shots at McDavid next year would not be a bad 'consolation' if the Islanders decide to keep this years pick.

If the Islanders don't win the lottery, there's a good chance they give the Sabres their 1st round pick. If they do this and the Sabres win the lottery, the Sabres will be picking 1st and 5th overall. If the Panthers, Oilers or Flames win the lottery, the Sabres will be picking 2nd and 5th. If any of the teams 6-14 win the lottery, the Sabres will be picking 2nd and 6th which is the worst combination of picks the Sabres will have if they get the Islanders 1st round pick and fail to win the lottery themselves.

Aaron Ekblad is the best defensive prospect in this years draft and some argue, the best overall prospect. Naturally, the team picking 1st overall should take the best prospect, which in this case would be the Sabres according to their odds. As a fan of the Sabres, I rather take whichever forward they like better out of Reinhart or Bennett.

The best case in my eyes would be for the Sabres to NOT win the lottery. Instead, I rather a team needing a defenseman, preferably a team from the West, to win the lottery. With that being said, I hope that team is the Edmonton Oilers. This will move the Sabres to 2nd and keep the Islanders in the 5th spot.

While you want your team to draft the best player possible, I think the Sabres have a greater need at Forward than they do at Defenseman. The Sabres were bad in all facets of the game this season. They went through a slew of goaltenders, were constantly out-shot and had a below average amount of scoring depth up front. I truly feel that the future is bright at the back-end thanks to players like Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Zadorov, Tyler Myers, Jake McCabe and Mark Pysyk. Adding a 6th defenseman in Ekblad would be great in theory but not in practicality. It would be a great top 6 but that top 6 is far too young especially since they are all within a very close age proximity.

Good teams have a combination of youth and veteran leadership. This top 6 leaves no room for any veteran defensemen. If you were to sign veteran defensemen, it would block your prospects and could inhibit their development as they would be stuck in the minors. I understand there are injuries and you can trade a defensive prospect or two for forward depth or you can have a slew of them in case some of them don't develop however the Sabres have a greater need at forward where you need 12 guys than they do at defensemen where you only need 6. The Sabres are much closer to solidifying their ideal 6 defensemen than they are finding 12 forwards who can score consistently and play two-way hockey, two things that both Reinhart and Bennett do very well.

I will reiterate, Aaron Ekblad will be a stud, but so will Sam Reinhart and Sam Bennett. I don't want to be in a position where the Sabres pass on Ekblad and constantly have to track his progress vs. the player they decide to choose and debate on a yearly basis whether or not it was the right choice. The best thing for the Sabres would be for the Edmonton Oilers, a defensive needy team from the West picking between 2 and 4, to win the lottery, draft Ekblad and the Sabres draft who they like better out of Reinhart and Bennett and are never put in the position of passing on Ekblad for one of the forwards.

An interesting scenario would be if a team wins the lottery, takes Reinhart or Bennett at 1 and the Sabres sit at 2 with Ekblad and the Sam (Reinhart or Bennett) that wasn't chosen at 1. The value of Ekblad at 2 looks even better than it does at 1, making the decision even more difficult if you are in the front office for the Buffalo Sabres.

The best case scenario? Islanders win the lottery, give the Sabres their pick, the Sabres draft 1 & 2, taking Ekblad and one of the two Forwards. But then do they have to deal with the potential regret of picking the wrong Forward? What if they took both Forwards and passed on Ekblad? That would definitely be an intriguing idea but man would it be tough to pass on Ekblad twice. The scenarios and situations could get pretty crazy but we'll have a much clearer picture on the night of April 15th.

Only 6 times in the last 19 years has the worst team in the NHL retained the #1 overall pick. The team(s) with the lowest odds to win the lottery that ended up winning the lottery were the Chicago Blackhawks in 1999 (8th) and the New Jersey Devils in 2011 (8th). According to this years percentage, each team would have had a 3.6% of winning heading into the lottery. Despite winning the lottery in these years, neither team picked 1st overall as there were stipulations that disallowed the lottery winner to move up more than 4 spots overall if their ping pong ball were to be picked. This has since changed, starting in 2013 which gave every team an opportunity to land the 1st overall pick. Since this change has been instituted there has been one draft in which the Colorado Avalanche moved from 2nd to 1st, drafting Nathan MacKinnon and subsequently making the playoffs the following year. A feat the Buffalo Sabres hope to accomplish as they are guaranteed a top 2 pick.

What do you want to happen? Who would you pick at #1 overall? Leave a comment and share your opinion! I'd personally like Sam Reinhart at 1 or 2 and Leon Draisaitl at 5 or 6 if we get the Islanders pick this year. I'll post more on these players so you can familiarize yourself with them if you are unaware of who they are and how they can help the Sabres. First, let's find out how the draft order shakes up!